Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Update 8:20pm 1/25: Wet slabs are becoming increasingly possible on east to southwest aspects, and could slide on a slick crust. Wet loose avalanches are also possible with wetting of the surface snow during daytime warming. Identify very steep and planar slopes that you'll want to avoid as the daytime warms up. Other hazards such as tree bombs and slick crusts should be expected.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    Warming temperatures are making human triggering of slab avalanches more likely. We received a report of one ski triggered D1.5 that was 10" deep on a steep, planer slope of Cowboy Mtn on Wednesday afternoon. The snow was dry, though the warming likely played a role. With the continuation of a warming trend into the day on Thursday, 'moist' slabs or wet slabs are expected to become more and more possible. 

    If snow surfaces are moist and sticky, identify very steep and smooth slopes that might be better avoided. Rollerballs and small wet loose slides can also be precursors to wet slabs. These types of avalanches are tricky to predict, so best to rely on the bullseye information for decision making. 

    (1/25/2023)

    Ski triggered slab that was 10" deep on an ESE aspect of Cowboy Mtn. It ran on the slick MLK crust while the temperatures were warm in the afternoon.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    We're in for another warm day, and expect the sun to warm snow surfaces on East to south aspects with daytime warming. It may get warm enough that slides could also occur on shaded slopes below treeline. The warm temperatures should melt snow surfaces, and loose wet slides may become possible in very steep terrain by mid morning. Large, steep open slopes lined with rocks are one of the places you could see these occur. You can also trigger these small, slow-moving avalanches that have a knack for grabbing your feet, and pulling you downhill. These slides could also trigger larger, wider slabs in some terrain.

    Snow falling from trees (tree bombs), wet snow surfaces, and rollerballs, are some signs that wet loose avalanches are becoming possible. Identify steep slopes to avoid with moist or wet snow surfaces on Thursday.

    (3/25/2022) Wet loose avalanches often initiate from steep rocky terrain, like in this photo, as it warms up in the sun.

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

We received a report of a ski triggered D1.5 slab that ran on the MLK crust on Wednesday. It wasn't a wet slab, though warming temperatures likely played a role. Direct south facing slopes reportedly warmed up some, and there may have been a few small wet loose slides on the usual slopes of Lichtenberg. The day seemed like a battle between warm temperatures and clouds, and the warming trend is expected to continue through the night. Thursday could be downright balmy. Later in the day, winds may begin to transport snow on higher peaks.

Avalanches on persistent weak layers beneath the MLK crust are unlikely, though we've been tracking a layer of buried surface hoar from January 4. This can sometimes be found about 1-2 feet below the surface and between 5,800-6,500ft in wind sheltered terrain. On the 19th, skiers triggered a large avalanche 1-2 feet deep on Jim Hill on a NE aspect at 6,200ft. While you can find this layer in a few other locations, it's otherwise been inactive and patchy in distribution within the zone. In the neighboring East Central zone, there have been multiple observations, including large natural avalanches running on this layer. 

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