Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday

Tonight and Saturday: The ridge of high pressure is forecasted to rebuild prolonging the cold and dry conditions. Sky should clear up, winds to blow lightly from the NE winds with temperatures around -10 C. Sunday: Similar conditions are forecasted for Sunday. However, the ridge is expected to weaken as a low pressure system just offshore is approaching the coast. Expect increasing clouds and prepare for a change in the weather pattern.Monday: A more zonal flow is forecasted funneling low pressure systems through the region and spreading light to moderate precipitation with light SW winds. There is still lots of uncertainty about the timing and amounts of snow.

There has been multiple reports of skier triggered loose dry avalanches and slab avalanches size 1. The loose dry ones were mostly on N aspects and slab were windslabs lee of the recent E wind event.

Recent strong E winds have scoured windward alpine faces and created 10-30 cm thick hard windslabs on lee and cross-loaded features in the alpine and at treeline. The windslab problem is sticking around longer than usual because of the prolonged cold temperatures and because they are sitting on a widespread surface hoar layer or on a suncrust on S facing slopes. Hence, the windslabs or loose snow in sheltered terrain are still reactive to skier traffic. The mid snowpack is strong and supportive. Deeper persistent layers have become unlikely to trigger, although large and destructive avalanches are still possible in isolated terrain with the right input such as a cornice fall or a heavy load over a thin spot in steep terrain. At the surface of the snowpack, a new surface hoar layer is growing in sheltered areas and surface facetting continues.