Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Dec 30, 2022valid to Dec 31, 2022Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects at the mid and upper elevations where avalanches involving soft slabs of new snow or wind-drifted snow are likely. On slopes facing northwest through east, avalanches may break down 2-4' on a buried persistent weak layer of faceted snow.

The avalanche danger is MODERATE at low elevations.

The avalanche danger could rise to HIGH this afternoon during any period of heavier snowfall or wind-drifting.

The avalanche danger will increase this evening with very dangerous avalanche conditions expected through at least this weekend.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
3
Most avalanche activity failing on the persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow has been on northerly-facing terrain, however the PWL does exist on other aspects at the mid and upper elevations, including some southerly aspects. The Rodeo Ridge avalanche occurred at lower elevations where rain had saturated the PWL, but colder temperatures are slowly freezing and stabilizing this wet weak layer. Snowfall this past week didn't seem to be enough of a load to produce widespread avalanching on this weak layer at mid and upper elevations, but heavy snowfall containing 5" of water that may potentially fall through this weekend will find any weakness in the snowpack, with large and dangerous avalanches very likely.

Trend: Increasing
Storm Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
Although I'm not expecting snowfall rates to increase until this evening, storm snow may be reactive during any period of heavier precipitation intensity or increase in winds. Watch for cracking or long-running sluffs as signs of instabilitity in the new snow.

Trend: Increasing

Special Announcement

Check out this great blog post that Dave put together discussing the persistent weak layer, and the forecaster's current mindset while dealing with it. You can read the full post HERE.

Recent Activity

Yesterday, I was able to visit the site of a skier-triggered avalanche on Wednesday on Rodeo Ridge. The avalanche was 2' deep and 250' wide, running 600' vertical. The avalanche broke 100' above the skier (avalanches breaking far above a skier are common with persistent weak layers) and the skier was carried 250' before stopping on top of the debris. Thanks to the party involved for an excellent writeup and visiting the site with me yesterday. (Photo below)

Snow and Weather

Temperatures this morning are in the mid teens and winds are westerly and moderate, gusting into the 20's mph along exposed ridgelines.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning through Monday morning. Snowfall will begin this morning and increase in intensity later this afternoon, with 6-10" expected by early evening. Winds will be from the southwest with increasing wind speeds later this afternoon. Exposed, mid-elevation ridgelines will gust into the 20's mph with stronger gusts along the upper elevations of the Ogden Skyline. Temperatures will range through the 20's F.

Strong winds and heavy snowfall overnight and lasting throughout the weekend. By Monday morning, storm totals in the Ogden mountains will potentially reach 3-5' of snow containing 3-5" of water.

Additional Info

Check out this weather discussion that Mark and I had talking about the forecast, and areas of certainty versus uncertainty within the snowpack.

General Announcements

Help support the UAC while doing your Holiday Shopping. The UAC's Holiday Silent Auction opens at 8:00 AM MT on December 26 and will close at 8:00 PM MT on January 2. Take a look at items and bid HERE.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures