Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is low today. Low avalanche danger does not indicate no avalanche danger. Watch for wet, unstable snow on very steep, warming slopes, especially if the temperature exceeds the forecast high of 35°F near treeline. 

Monday and Tuesday, near-record high temperatures are possible. Wet avalanche activity is expected to increase. 

Anticipate variable conditions and very little powder snow during the warming spring transition. Expect challenging and thin lower-elevation approaches and egresses. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Small wet avalanches will be possible near and above treeline on slopes most exposed to the sun and near solar-heated cliffs and rocks. At lower elevations below treeline, warmer temperatures will melt and saturate the snowpack on most aspects. Avoid traveling in slushy snow on very steep slopes near cliffs and other terrain traps. 

    On Saturday, KPAC found evidence of two small, wet-loose avalanches on southerly slopes in Beard Canyon (see media photos below). These likely occurred the previous day, Friday, March 21. The wind on Saturday accelerated water evaporation on the snow surface, preventing the snowpack from becoming too saturated and minimizing wet-loose activity. 

    Beginning Monday, March 24, expect increasing wet-avalanche activity as daytime highs and overnight lows become warmer. 

    Wet-loose avalanches start on the snowpack's surface as minor point releases but will quickly entrain more snow as they descend the slope.  

    (5/4/2024) An example of a small wet loose avalanche on an east aspect in the Humphreys Cirque from the 2023-2024 season.

Avalanche Discussion

There have been no reports of dry-snow instabilities in the past seven days, and the snowpack has settled rapidly, signaling a decrease in the likelihood of triggering a dry-snow avalanche. The snowpack is transitioning into a melt-freeze cycle, and with that comes an increasing likelihood of wet avalanches. See the below images of small wet-loose avalanches in Beard Canyon. 

Miracle March gave us two weeks of winter and some good backcountry touring. It bumped the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL weather station up to 95% of median (see the graph below).  But winds and warm temperatures over the last few days have made it harder to find good powder snow. By Monday afternoon, all slopes will have a melt-freeze crust. Spring is here, and corn snow will be on tap this week. Yesterday, the corn snow on sunny slopes was still immature. It should mature quickly in the next few days, but very warm temperatures will increase the danger of wet avalanches. Near-record high temperatures are possible Monday and Tuesday, and wet avalanche activity is expected to increase. Spring skiing is all about planning and timing your tour to maximize good corn-snow turns and minimize exposure to slopes that become too wet and unstable.

Warm temperatures this week have reduced the snow depth. Lower elevations and previously wind-scoured slopes above treeline have very thin spots. Many northerly slopes below 9000' will not have snow by next weekend. Approaches and egresses are becoming thin and challenging as the snow melts. 

Crampons and ice axes will be helpful in the mornings on steep frozen slopes. 

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

KPAC has documented evidence of several avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

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