Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Multiple days of above freezing temperatures, combined with sunshine and meltwater in the snowpack will create complex wet snow avalanche problems today. It is possible for a loose wet avalanche to step down and trigger a larger and more dangerous wet slab avalanche in areas where meltwater has worked its way deeper into the snowpack. With such complex conditions, travelling in or below avalanche terrain is not recommended. If you are getting out in the mountains today, choose low angle terrain that is far from run out zones.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Sunshine, record breaking temperatures and recent rain will all play a role in today's wet snow problems. Even the tallest peak in all of the forecast zones won't be able to escape the heat and will see temperatures well above freezing. In the upper most elevations, snow that has previously warded off the warmer temperatures will be reaching the first significant warm up today and transitioning to wet snow. This will result in a potential for both natural and human triggered avalanches. These avalanches may initially start small but will entrain more snow and gain in size as they move downhill.

    It shouldn’t be hard to find evidence of this warming today- rollerballs that grow to impressive sizes, mushy snow that makes you sink in past your ankles, and wet snow releasing around rocks and cliff bands will be abundant. With several feet of new snow from last week, avalanches are expected to run long distances. Part of being in the mountains today will be centered around staying away from slopes over 30 degrees, and staying clear of overhead hazards and runout zones.  

    (3/19/2025)

    Small, Loose Wet avalanches triggered by surface warming and rollerballs on an east-facing slope around 6800 feet. The slides originated from steep rocky terrain. East Cabinet Mountains. March 19, 2025.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Today we move into day 3 of above freezing temperatures, following generous amounts of rain. Sunshine will be added to the mix today, which will accelerate the amount of free water percolating into the snowpack. Thanks to last week’s storm that delivered several feet of new snow, new interfaces and layers were formed in the snowpack. As the meltwater works its way deeper and deeper into the snowpack, these interfaces, along with previously existing weak layers, will be lubricated and saturated. Due to the depth of these interfaces, an avalanche that fails on these layers would result in a large to very large and dangerous slab avalanche.

     A natural or human triggered wet loose avalanche has the potential to step down and trigger a larger wet slab avalanche. This scenario will be most likely found near tree line, where these two wet snow problems are most likely to intersect due to the amount of free water already running through the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

March in the mountains usually brings about rapidly changing conditions, and this year has been no exception. Some of the best snow days of the season occurred with last week’s storm, when the majority of the forecast area saw several feet of new snow. In typical fashion, mother nature kept us on our toes and delivered a quick shift in the weather. Now as the mountains try to revert back to spring like conditions, rain and sustained well above freezing temperatures have taken over. With such drastic changes occurring in a short period of time, we have to ask ourselves- how is this all affecting the snowpack?

Limited observations from the past couple days leave us with a bit of uncertainty surrounding current conditions. However, we do know a couple of things for certain. Number one being that the snowpack doesn’t like or respond well to sudden changes in weather. The second being that today marks 3 days since the mountains have seen below freezing temperatures, and rain and sun have only added to the acceleration of water moving through the snow. Based off these facts, we can conclude that conditions will be complex and that wet snow problems can be encountered at all elevations. Given the complexity of conditions, trying to “out smart” these problems or thread the needle isn’t going to work. Personally, I think this is better weather to go for a long run or take your mountain bike out. If you do decide to get out on the snow, you will have to keep your head on a swivel. Avalanches have the potential to run far distances, initially failing on steeper slopes and running long lengths to lower elevation terrain. This will be especially likely in gullies or steep chutes. Making travel plans that don’t intersect with runout zones will be essential for navigating in the mountains.

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