Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You could still easily trigger avalanches in wind-drifted snow, they will be potentially larger and more likely at upper elevations. Steer around steep slopes below ridgelines, the base of cliffs, and exposed terrain with stiff wind-affected snow. Continue to diligently avoid steep north aspects with potential for deep, widely propagating avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Recently formed wind slabs may still be reactive, even as snowfall and winds taper off overnight on Saturday. A dusting of fresh snow could hide textured surfaces, so look for cornice formations and pillowlike drifts, or feel for stiffer snow layers to identify wind-affected terrain. Cracks shooting out from your equipment or recent avalanches are signs to move to lower angle or wind-sheltered slopes. You can also use small wind-affected test slopes to see how the snow reacts, if the snow fractures and slides easily, avalanches are more likely. Smaller storm slabs or loose snow avalanches are possible in sheltered terrain.

    A smaller wind slab might step down to more deeply buried weak layers, becoming a very large and dangerous avalanche. 

    (11/26/2024)

    Shooting cracks in wind-drifted snow. 7,200ft, W. West fork of Cedar ck

    Photo: Will Govus

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    With this low likelihood, high consequence situation, continue avoiding steep northerly slopes where you could trigger one of these massive avalanches. You may be more likely to trigger one near exposed rocks or on wind-loaded slopes. Persistent slabs are a tricky problem that take a long time to gain strength and require patience along with careful decision-making. The recent loading from snowfall and significant wind-loading could make this problem more likely.  You may not receive any of the typical warning signs, like collapsing before triggering a slide, and these avalanches could be unsurvivable, breaking across entire slopes and running long distances.  In two separate involvements in late February near Harts Pass, snowmobilers were buried and one person was killed. More recently, observers in this area found test results showing that the weak layer hasn't gained strength.

    (2/28/2025)

    A large avalanche near Hart's Pass that caught 2 snowmobilers and resulted in one fatality on February 28th. 

    HS-AM-D2.5-R4-O. Cone Mtn, NE, 6,800ft

    Photo: NCH

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    If the sun breaks through the clouds or the day gets warm enough, wet avalanches will be possible, particularly in the afternoon. This time of year, fresh snow doesn't take long to become wet, heavy, and start to slide. You might be more likely to trigger these avalanches where new snow rests over slick crusts. Move to lower-angle terrain if you begin to see rollerballs or snow shedding off trees and rocks. 

    More lengthy sun breaks are possible further east in the zone. 

    (2/10/2024)

    Small wet avalanches from warming temperatures. 

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday brought a few inches of snow and strong winds to the zone. This system will taper off quickly overnight, but a few showers could linger into Sunday. Mid-March brings more significant diurnal warming, so freezing levels will rise in the afternoon, and if the sun comes out, it will feel quite warm. 

Over the past few days, observers triggered several small wind and storm slab avalanches in the Highway 20 corridor. Observers at Harts Pass reported cracking in wind drifted snow. They also found large and small column tests indicating that propagation is likely on the January Drought Layer. That said, their tests also indicated that you may need to find a shallow area to trigger the weak layer. 

A late February storm brought 18" of snow to the area and was followed by a prolonged warm weather into early March. This resulted in a widespread natural avalanche cycle, first persistent slabs, and then wet loose and wet slab avalanches. Observers reported many large to very large avalanches with widely propagating crowns. The weak layer (January Drought Layer) is buried 2–3.5 ft (70-120cm) below the surface in the Washington Pass and Harts Pass areas. Near Rainy and Easy Passes, the JDL is over 4 feet deep and capped with a thick melt-freeze crust. Aside from getting deeper, the weak layer hasn't changed significantly since the active avalanche cycle. 

As a reminder, on Monday, March 17th, WSDOT crews will begin clearing the road from Silverstar Snowpark and snowmobile access to Washington Pass will end for the season. For more information, check out https://wsdot.wa.gov/

NWAC Forecasters visited the site of the avalanche fatality near Harts Pass that occurred on 2/28. You can read the initial observation here. 

You can help us gather more data by submitting an observation HERE or via the Avy App. 

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