Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack has settled into a daily melt-freeze cycle and has generally adjusted to the prolonged warm temperatures. But you may find isolated pockets of unstable wet snow likely on very steep, rocky slopes in direct sun. Long falls on steep icy slopes may be the greatest hazard on Sunday. Use caution and bring appropriate equipment for challenging travel conditions. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Between cool temperatures below the inversion at lower elevations, warm overnight temperatures, and the potential for mid-level clouds in the afternoon, it will be hard to say how the surfaces will change during the day. Most areas seem solidly settled into the spring-like diurnal melt-freeze cycle. However, you may still be able to trigger wet loose avalanches in isolated areas.  Very steep rocky slopes with moist snow in the sun are prime locations for wet loose avalanches to start.It will be important to track the snow surface conditions as you travel. If you see pinwheels or rollerballs or the snow feels wet and heavy, you might be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche. You can use short, steep test slopes to check if snow will move downhill.

    Be aware of overhead hazards and terrain traps that can increase the consequences of being caught in even a small avalanche. Many cornices have already failed, but those lingering can still break. Give these features a wide berth and avoid spending much time underneath them. If a large cornice breaks, it could trigger a wet loose avalanche on the slope below. 

    (2/9/2022) SE bowl of Big Slide Creek. Recent rollerballs and a small wet loose slide. Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

We are in store for another day of valley inversions and warm temperatures at upper elevations on Sunday. Expect icy surfaces on all aspects in the morning and the potential for soft and corn-like skiing in the afternoon on sunny slopes. However, keep in mind that the potential for afternoon cloud cover may prevent surfaces from softening and sustain challenging travel conditions throughout the day. Travel conditions range from thick supportable crusts, wind stiffened surfaces, breakable crusts, corn-like soft snow, manky wet snow, dry settled snow, and various degrees of in-between. 

We may see a few inches of snow on Monday, but at this time, it is not looking like enough to change the conditions drastically. But it will still be necessary to note any weak snow on the surface, such as feathery surface hoar, in case it gets buried and preserved as a weak layer. 

In some locations near the crest, weak faceted snow may exist above or beneath a crust from late January. We haven't seen avalanches on this layer yet in this zone, but an observer reported a very large collapse at 4,000ft near Eightmile Lake on Thursday. Observers continue to get whumphing collapses and shooting cracks in the East North zone. There is uncertainty on how this layer is changing with the prolonged warm temperatures. But it is possible that a cornice failure or wet loose avalanche could trigger a deeper and surprisingly large slab avalanche on northern aspects. This layer is only 1-2ft deep, so you can dig down to identify and evaluate them. Look for weak, sugary snow over a firm melt-freeze crust.   

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