Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

As the day warms, sluffs involving the surface snow are possible on very steep, sunny slopes and could release naturally. Triggering a large, thick avalanche is unlikely but not impossible. Watch for rocky, wind-swept slopes with variable snowpack depths, as these are the areas where slides are more likely.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet snow avalanches are possible on very steep slopes that face the sun. These avalanches often initiate near exposed rocks. While most will be small, some can grow large enough to bury you beneath large slopes or in funneled terrain. You are most likely to encounter wet snow avalanches where the snowpack is less than 3' deep and near mid-slope rock bands or in tree-sparse areas sheltered from the wind. Avalanches are less likely in alpine terrain, where the wind has stiffened the snow surface. However, don’t rule out the possibility of soft snow lingering in isolated alpine areas.

    You can reduce your risk by limiting your time beneath sun-drenched slopes, especially during the heat of the afternoon.

    If you're skiing or riding on very steep slopes basking in direct sun and encounter a mushy snow surface, you may trigger small avalanches that could knock you off your feet or carry you where you don’t want to go.

    (1/22/2025) There are a variety of snow surfaces out there. Avalanches are less likely in terrain with a heavily textured snow surface (foreground). The steep, rocky terrain in the background is where you're most likely to encounter wet snow avalanches.S face of Williams Peak, following the Jan 16th warm-up. Photo: Ben VandenBos

Avalanche Discussion

Wet snow avalanches are possible today on very steep slopes facing the sun. You’re most likely to encounter them where the snowpack is less than 3 feet deep, especially near mid-slope rock bands or in tree-sparse areas sheltered from the wind. Avalanches are less likely in alpine terrain, where the wind has stiffened the snow surface, but don’t rule out the possibility of soft snow lingering in isolated alpine areas. Avoid lingering under steep slopes basking in direct sunlight, especially during the afternoon heat, as avalanches could release naturally.

If you’re skiing or riding on steep terrain on the southern half of the compass (W through S through SE) and the snow surface has become mushy and unconsolidated, consider moving to colder slopes.

You’d have to have a bit of bad luck to trigger a large avalanche independent of wet snow avalanches. Watch for slopes with the below characteristics to lessen your chances of getting surprised:

  • Shaded, very steep terrain (approaching 40 degrees in steepness) where the upper 6–12 inches of the snowpack are unconsolidated and faceted—you might be able to trigger sluffs or “facet-lanches.” These shouldn't be large enough to bury a person, but they could pack a punch, knocking you off your feet or carrying you where you don’t want to go.

You can always hedge your bets when skiing or riding in avalanche terrain by traveling with a knowledgeable partner and avoiding slopes that end in terrain traps, such as thick trees, cliffs, and creek bottoms.

Regions covered