Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Unlikely but very large deep avalanches continue to weigh heavily on backcountry travelers’ plans. You may not see any signs you need to tuck tail and run until the whole slope releases. The only way to avoid this problem is by staying out of larger avalanche paths.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Three to six+ feet of snow sit on top of older buried, persistent weak layers. Facets on or just above the Early February Crust (EFC) produce numerous avalanches around the zone and in nearby areas. Most recently, a very large crown was spotted Thursday on Gilbert Peak near White Pass. Snowpack tests continue to produce the exact same results and the slow trickle of avalanches indicates this issue hasn’t fully gone to sleep. 

    Unfortunately, periods of sunshine and several wind events caused these weak layers to become highly variable, with no discernible pattern. It’s impossible to tell if any single slope will or will not slide. Even tracks in a startzone don’t indicate it’s safe. The only tool at our disposal to manage this hazard is avoidance. Consider fully staying off of larger steep open slopes.

    (3/7/2024)

    A widely breaking crown on the Conrad Glacier below Gilbert Peak. [N 7500']

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Friday will be a transition day in the mountains as our next storm system starts to arrive. Sunshine to begin the day will help things warm, but it will need to break down a rather strong crust before wet avalanches become a concern. By that time, clouds should increase, and a cool southeasterly breeze will take the “bite” out of the warm temperatures. Even still, if you find wet sloppy snow, be careful. It could slide, particularly in very steep or rocky terrain. You’re most likely to encounter wet avalanche issues at lower elevations near Mt St Helens or Mt Adams where the clouds could hold off until much later in the day. 

As winds turn more southeasterly and increase, they could drift a bit of the recent snow into very thin and small slabs. These shallow avalanches shouldn’t be much bigger than a big table and don’t pose much risk to you unless you’re in extreme terrain. 

The snow pack became more aspect dependent during the recent sunny warm weather. Southerly slopes have a highly variable crust. In many places, it’s still breakable and only a few inches thick. On more shaded slopes, the recent snow settled into a generally right-side-up layer. You may still find a few weaknesses (storm layers), but we haven’t seen any recent avalanches to indicated they’re still a concern. 

Below all the recent snow, you can still find the same facets on or just above the EFC that we’ve talked about for weeks. This layer hasn’t gone away. Snow profiles can often highlight these persistent weaknesses. However, if you don’t find them, don’t bet your life on one hole in the snow. 

As we shift our focus to the incoming storm, what’s on the surface now makes a big difference. Avalanche professionals at White Pass and Paradise Thursday reported surface hoar everywhere in the morning, that melted back on sunny slopes in the afternoon. Pay attention to what’s on the surface before the snow starts to fall. If you see feathery surface hoar, sugary facets, or icy crusts, we want to know. This makes a big difference in how avalanche concerns will unfold.

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