Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate at all elevations.  The hazard will begin the day as low below 4000 feet where a strong melt freeze crust has developed.  As the sun heats up the snow surface the hazard will increase to moderate with the potential for natural and human triggered wet loose avalanches.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Minor wet loose activity was observed on solar aspects yesterday.   This activity is anticipated to be more widespread today and potentially involve more mass as skies are forecasted to be more clear than yesterday.  Expect for the snowfall from the 25th-26th to be shedding off steep solar aspects, especially in rocky terrain.  Avoid exposing yourself to, or traveling on steep solar aspects once the top few inches of snow becomes moist-wet.  In addition avoid travelling beneath cornices, as this is the time of year they begin to fail.

    The wet loose avalanche problem offers clear instability indicators and are highly dependent on slope aspect. Monitor the sun's impact on the snow surface closely. Wet loose conditions become a concern when over 4 inches of snow becomes moist, particularly on steep, rocky slopes. The avalanche hazard does not affect all aspects simultaneously but starts on east-facing slopes, shifting to south and then west. Stay vigilant to which slopes are most affected by solar heating and to what extent.

     

     

     

     

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    4-12 inches of new snow from the 25th-26th has been observed above 4000' with higher amounts towards the coast and only a couple of inches in the far north of our Continental zone.  These recently formed storm slabs have been reported and observed as well bonded with hand pits and steep slopes skied pointing towards good stability.  The only human triggered avalanche reported yesterday was to the south of our forecast area on a solar aspect where new snow totals were higher( 18 inches).  

    Another clear night should allow for recent snow to continue to settle with human triggered avalanches unlikely on high, sheltered north facing terrain.  Human triggered avalanches can not be ruled out within the new snow on aspects that are receiving solar input or in areas where snowfall totals exceed 12 inches.  Clear skies today will make storm slabs settle and become more cohesive when the sun is perpendicular to a slope.  It is during these times that new snow sensitivity could increase slightly making human triggered avalanches possible, especially in convex or unsupported terrain on slopes receiving direct sun.

     

Avalanche Discussion

RECENT AVALANCHE ACTIVITY:  

A couple small human triggered D1's were reported yesterday to the south of our forecast area where snowfall totals were greater and the slope had received solar input.  In addition, small to medium sized wet loose activity was observed over the last 48 hours.  

DISCUSSION:

Stable conditions were observed and reported yesterday with steep skiing producing moderate slufffing. Today, instabilities will revolve around the effects of the sun with normal spring hazards a concern.  Wet loose avalanche activity is expected today as fresh snow still exists on some solar aspects that did not shed yesterday due to cloud cover.  Shallow storm slab avalanches will be possible as well on steep convex or unsupported terrain where the sun has created a more settled, cohesive slab.

This is the time of year when cornices begin to fail.  You can significantly reduce your overall exposure in the mountains this time of year by avoiding traveling on top of or under cornices.

A layer of buried surface hoar that was 1-3' deep has been removed from our problem list as it became unreactive to human triggers last week and is isolated in its distribution.  Given the limited recent snowfall in areas where this layer might be present, the overall stability is expected to remain stable.  There is a small chance that cornice fall or small storm slab avalanches could step down to this layer in isolated locations on northerly aspects above 3000' in the Continental zone.

A very significant Glide avalanche/ landslide in Upper Stuart Creek last week is a great reminder of the destructive forces involved with glide crack failure.  Glide cracks exist in isolated areas and will be a hazard throughout the season until they fail.  Avoid exposure to glide cracks.

Valdez season snowfall: 269  inches

Valdez March snowfall: 20 inches

Valdez height of snowpack: 70 inches

Thompson Pass season snowfall: 596 inches as of 3/1

46 mile height of snowpack: 68 inches

 

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