Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Storm totals are 10 to 14 inches with an additional foot of snow forecasted throughout the day.  New snow combined with W winds will continue to build slabs that will stress faceted weak layers deeper in the snowpack. An Avalanche Warning will remain in place today.

Large and destructive persistent slab avalanches on northerly and east aspects propagating wide distances and breaking on or near the ground continue to be the main concern as new snow and wind will provide a big test to these fragile weak layers deeper in the snowpack. With snow stacking up the likelihood of triggering a storm slab avalanche will increase. Large human triggered and natural avalanches are likely today.  You can trigger an avalanche from below or an adjacent slope from long distances away.  Traveling in and around avalanche terrain is not recommended.   

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Another round of snow and W winds will continue to stress deeper weak layers and may push them to their breaking point. 3 to 4-foot slabs will continue to grow and rest on top of weak faceted snow on or near the ground leading to a poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. These basal facets/depth hoar were mainly confined to northerly and east aspects near and above treeline, but may also be found below treeline on northerly aspects. Human triggered and natural persistent slab avalanches are likely today.   It's possible to remotely trigger an avalanche from below or an adjacent slope.  Avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30 degrees today, giving avalanche path runouts wide berths as avalanches may run long distances.  Avalanches may break on or near the ground and will be large enough to injure or bury you and could be unsurvivable.  

    Large Natural avalanche on a north aspect above treeline from earlier in the week during the last big loading event from the Christmas Eve storm.  With another significant loading event over the next two days, expect natural avalanches 3 to 6 feet deep to break wide distances and traveling well into the flats.  

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A multi-day storm will continue to build storm slabs today creating very dangerous avalanche conditions on most slopes, even in terrain where the persistent slab problem is absent.  Storm slab avalanches will be most likely near and above treeline and wind-exposed terrain but may occur on any steep slope. These slabs could break 1 to 3' deep which is enough to injure or bury you. Moderate west winds will easily transport new snow onto the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded gullies. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks propagating off your ski tips.

    Watch for loose snow sluffing in steep terrain that could entrain enough snow to knock you off your feet or push you into a terrain trap and potentially bury you.  

    With snow piling up be aware of roof avalanches that could release naturally during the day.

Avalanche Discussion

Happy New Year, and what a way to say goodbye to 2021! An Avalanche Warning will remain in place today as a second trough pushes into northern New Mexico early this morning where an additional foot of snow at upper elevations could fall by this evening. It was a slow and delayed start to yesterday's storm with totals so far in the 10 to 14-inch range with 1.4 to 1.6" snow water equivalent (SWE). Wind instrumentation is currently down, but moderate W/NW winds are forecasted during the day. It's been an active week as snow totals since Dec 24th, are 3 to 4 feet and 5 to 6" of SWE.

Old snow from November continues to linger in the form of facets and depth hoar on the ground on NW, N, NE and E aspects near and above treeline as well as northerly aspects at lower elevations.  This persistent weak layer is buried beneath 3 to 5 feet of dense slabs from storms over the last week.  In recent travels, loud audible collapses and shooting cracks have become less widespread and not as common as they were last week. However, in long column tests, we continue to produce full propagation with easy to moderate force on deeper weak layers.  Avoid likely trigger points where the overlying slab is thinner, near rock outcrops, and on the margins of the slab as these are places where you're more likely to impact weak layers deeper in the snowpack. With well-connected slabs, it's possible to trigger an avalanche from the flats below.    

Below treeline avalanche concerns have been limited to northerly and shady aspects where old snow remained during prolonged periods of high pressure earlier in the season.  With snow piling up with this multi-day storm, steep and wind-exposed terrain will become more problematic with storm slabs. Even a smaller avalanche can have serious consequences with terrain traps and ground hazards.

Don't let your guard down with the excitement of chasing powder. A natural avalanche cycle is expected at some point during this storm, producing very large avalanches, potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack. These avalanches could break wide and run long distances traveling well into the flats below.    Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Stay off of and out from beneath slopes steeper than 30 degrees, and avoid traveling in the runout zones of avalanche paths. 

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