Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Our attention shifts to the storm snow as temperatures drop. Small avalanches could be easier to trigger where winds have drifted the snow or you find a poor bond to the underlying crust. Steer around higher consequence terrain such as above terrain traps and cliffs.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Temperatures will cool enough at upper elevations that storm snow may not bond well to the crust interface. It will also be cold enough to drift into the immediate lee of ridgelines at these elevations. If you find that the snow slides easily on the crust, it may fail as loose snow and could knock you off your feet on a steep slope. Use frequent hand pits and skin track tests to sample how well the snow is bonding and whether it will be cohesive and prone to fail across a slope. High-consequence terrain is where you're most likely to get into trouble. Consider the risk of getting pushed off your line and over a cliff or into a terrain trap where even a small avalanche could bury you. There are plenty of holes, creeks, gullies, and late-season hazards cropping back up after 25 inches of recent snowpack melt/consolidation. If the sun makes an appearance, it could consolidate fresh snow into a slab that becomes easier to trigger on exposed aspects, or rollerballs and wet loose avalanches could ensue. At middle elevations, storm snow may be reactive in more isolated areas, but we expect milder temperatures will help the bond to the underlying crust.

    (3/13/2024)

    Example: Upslope track test reveals a shallow storm slab.

    Photo: Robert Hahn

Avalanche Discussion

Transition your thoughts back to cold snow avalanche concerns with a focus on upper elevations. We're finally trending back to typical early spring weather, but the damage to the snowpack has been extensive at Hurricane Ridge, with 25 inches of snowmelt or consolidation. The temperature rose above freezing early March 21st and only dropped below freezing last night, before temperatures rebounded to 42F by Thursday afternoon. The resulting snowpack decreased by 30% from 80 to 56" over that timeframe.

NWAC Observers and Park rangers traveled to around 6000 ft on the west side of Mt Angeles on Thursday and conditions were similar with some very light rainfall on Friday. Most aspects are losing their winter layering rapidly. On southerly aspects, even the crusts are no longer apparent. On northerly aspects, a highly variable crust up to about 8" thick overlies a relatively homogeneous snowpack to the ground. On these aspects, there were several crusts, but none yielded notable results. The snowpack in this area has handled a fairly rapid transition to spring quite gracefully. There had been some minor wet loose activity over the last week, but they didn't observe signs of glide cracks forming. You can read their full report here.

If you're traveling in deeper snowpack areas, keep the wet avalanche concerns in mind for one more day. Prevailing weather patterns have favored the eastern, southern, and western parts of the range with snowfall throughout the winter. Water percolating through these deeper snowpacks may take longer to impact crusts or weak layers. Take note of any recent avalanche activity and if you find evidence of large wet avalanches, expect that they could still be on the agenda in that area on Friday. An observation from the Mt Olympics area shows very large D2.5-D3 avalanches that entrained down to the ground on some very steep sun-exposed aspects. These are the types of deeper snowpack areas where you will want to limit your exposure to a potential large or very large avalanche. We suspect that with cooling weather, these avalanches will quite unlikely at this point and should be limited to areas without recent crust formation.

2023-2024 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December to early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  We will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through the end of April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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