Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, and triggering a large avalanche remains likely on many slopes, especially in wind-drifted terrain. These slides will fail on a layer of weak snow near the base of the snowpack. Avalanches are less likely—but still possible—in more sheltered terrain, and multiple large avalanches have been noted over the past three days. You can reduce your risk of encountering such a slide by sticking to lower-angled terrain not threatened by steeper slopes above. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    A significant slab has been added to Togwotee. With the full avalanche recipe now present at a wider range of locations, we have a complex and variable assessment to make as riders. Triggering an avalanche will most likely be on weak snow buried within the snowpack's top 2-3 feet, and starting even a small avalanche here holds the opportunity to trigger a much larger, deeper problem. Return to the basics: we have a handful of persistent weak layers, which are getting loaded with new and windblown snow. Scale back our terrain choices by choosing lower-angled slopes. Most of the avalanches noted in the observations this weak have been significant and large, breaking on deeper weak snow, even in areas that look more approachable like the treed area of Two Ocean noted in the attached photo. Controlling your slope angle and steering clear of areas loaded with recent, windblown snow (particularly if they were shallow before this storm) is the only way to avoid this problem.  

     

    (3/3/2024)

    A large natural avalanche on the Whale's Back of East Angle. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday brought a buffet of southerly wind to Togwotee. Fresh wind slabs will continue to form with moderate winds from the south/southwest increasing throughout the day today, and range 2+ feet in depth. 

    As new snow settles or is worked further by the wind, slabs can become stiffer, and sometimes the above problem can be worse days after a storm. This is worth bearing in mind as the weather clears briefly today. These slabs may break on mid-storm interfaces but also hold a higher possibility of breaking on layers deeper in the snowpack.  

     

    (3/2/2024)

    A large persistent slab avalanche east of Two Ocean Mountain. This avalanche broke about 400' wide and failed on weak snow formed in December.

    Photo: Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Weather conditions have changed the snowpack here rapidly, and Togwotee has a particularly fickle snowpack this season. The persistent slab problem here is tricky. 

What you shouldn't do: attempt to overthink/outsmart this problem. Some deeper, large avalanches have already occured, but others slopes have yet to show their hand. Time is needed for the snowpack to adjust to new snowfall. This problem is tricky in that you could certainly ride steeper terrain at the current hazard and not trigger an avalanche, but that is the nature of estimating slope stability and prediction in avalanche terrain. You always have skin in the game and are placing a bet, and the odds of pulling a bad card are higher right now. Large avalanches could also be triggered from below a slope, so steer clear of the runout of larger avalanche paths.  

What you should do: take a step back and take a more holistic view. Recent loading due to new snow and wind? Check. Weak layers in the snowpack? Check. Recent avalanches? Check. When you look at it that way, the situation becomes more clear. Keep terrain selections simple whenever conditions change here, whether in the form of new snowfall or warming temperatures and sunny skies. Excellent skiing and riding conditions exist currently, and you can enjoy the new snow relatively safely on moderate slope angles and terrain sheltered from the wind. 

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