Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A skier or rider may trigger a wind slab avalanche or, more significantly, a persistent slab avalanche on steep terrain in areas of wind loading or in the margins of steep avalanche paths or chutes.   These wind slab avalanches will likely be small but are possible on all aspects near and above treeline.  As warming temperatures affect the snowpack beware of softening slabs and increased hazard.  Make conservative terrain and travel choices when entering steep and rocky locations. 

Be aware of the warming temperatures and the added possibility of wet loose avalanches on south facing slopes, which could carry a skier or rider over consequential terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The potential for a skier or rider to trigger a small wind slab avalanche remains possible today, especially in steep terrain at the top of rollovers, near loaded gullies, and in starting zones.  This hazard will increase with warming temperatures and prolonged sun exposure.  While most wind slabs have stabilized in the past 24 hours, do not underestimate the power of the sun and warming temperatures to soften hardened slabs and increase the reactivity of varying layers of density in wind loaded locations.

    Skiers and riders should continue to watch for cracking and hollow sounding wind slabs.  Either of these occurrences is a sign that slopes may be unstable or that you may be loading a sensitive location.  These features are found in isolated spots, which means conditions can change in a mere few feet of travel.  Keep eyes on one another, provide adequate spacing, and ski slopes one at a time.  

    (3/17/2024)

    A small (D1) wind slab avalanche on a small test slope. 

    Photo: Tanner Porter

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Facets in and below the mid-level of the snowpack may reach a critical threshold and result in a slab avalanche with the additional weight of a skier or rider.  Recent accumulation and transported snow have complicated this situation.  Current weak layers have been found ranging from radiation-formed facets above melt-freeze crusts, 1' beneath the surface, and as deep as 3' pre-storm.  It is possible for a wind slab avalanche to "step down" and trigger these persistent weak layers in isolated terrain, resulting in a larger avalanche.  

    Many of these persistent weak layers have developed in varying depths of the snowpack.  This problem is currently difficult to assess as temperature gradients have varied widely depending on small microclimatic differences, such as aspect, sun effect, and snow depth.  It is challenging to assess the distribution of this problem on aspect or elevation, but in most instances, this problem has been located within isolated portions of the terrain.  Be cautious in rocky and complex locations where chutes or skiable lines change in aspect.  These are the locations where a skier or rider is most likely to trigger this problem.  In most cases, any triggered avalanche of this type will be small, as it probably does not have the continuity nor propagation propensity to release slope-wide.  Nonetheless, remain aware of this problem, especially where a small avalanche would be complicated by features such as rocks, cliffs, and gullies.  

    (3/14/2024) Our current PWL to track which is 30-50cm beneath the old snow surface. On northern aspects, midpack facets are set up above a solar crust. On southern aspects, facets are layered between multiple melt-freeze crusts.  Photo: Eric R./ JP

Avalanche Discussion

As weather conditions improve post-storm remember to use your own senses and what the snow is telling you to guide your group decision making.  Thus far, evidence from the past two days shows that the snowpack is stabilizing.  However, don't let these observations overrule what you see firsthand.  Watch for signs of instability, such as cracking, whumphing and previous avalanches.  Conditions will change rapidly today, and the snowpack is highly variable across aspect, elevation, and terrain.  Play it safe.  Put the odds in your favor by digging test pits before skiing complex terrain to determine the potential reactivity of any weak layers in your present location.

We are dealing with at least two potential problems today, and possibly a third:  wind slab, persistent slab and possible wet loose avalanches.  While the first two problems seem to be abating, the third (wet loose avalanches) may be on the rise as temperatures increase and the new snow is exposed to radiant conditions.  

Yesterday's winds were calm near treeline, and very little suspended snow was observed near the ridgetops.  Most of the wind slabs seem to have stabilized, but some hollow and firm wind slabs may soften and become more prone to triggering as the day goes on and temperatures warm.  When possible, continue to test wind slabs in inconsequential areas and look for signs of instability, such as shearing.  Beware of hollow sounding snow and avoid loaded areas in steep terrain.

The persistent slab problem is currently hard to assess and varies significantly across slopes, depending on subtly terrain features and aspects.  Facets and preserved near-surface facets have been found near and below the new snow/old snow interface.  In most instances, these layers have been unreactive in propagation tests, but observations have been limited.  Assess steep slopes carefully and utilize proper travel protocols.  If these buried weak layers were to fail the consequences, especially in steep and rocky terrain, could result in the partial or full burial of a skier or rider.  

As temperatures warm, and as slopes see incoming solar radiation, wet-loose avalanches could develop.  These avalanches will not bury an individual, but they could knock a skier or rider off their feet and over consequential terrain.  Worse yet, it is possible that they could step down and trigger a persistent slab avalanche that could result in a full burial.  It is difficult to determine just how much solar exposure slopes will see today.  If the weather is clear, look for signs of instability such as melting snow and roller balls.  These are signs that a skier or rider could trigger a small wet loose avalanche.

Finally, watch for obstacles buried just below the surface. A number of upper elevation and south facing slopes that look to hold excellent turns may be hiding rocks and logs just below the surface.  Use pole probe tests to constantly check snow depths and be aware of which sides of slopes may be just 10-30 cm deep.  With all the new snow, some slopes are deceptively shallow, especially after the winds that occurred throughout the storm, which scoured some areas.  

Storm totals from the last cycle are 35" reported by the Arizona Snowbowl at 10,800' and 21" at the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL.  3.7" of SWE has been recorded at the Snowslide Canyon  SNOTEL.  Enjoy these last little bits of powder skiing before the spring corn cycle sets in. 

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season and a big thank you to all our participants!

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