Regions
Kootenay Boundary.
Weather models are having trouble with the specifics of this weekend's weather. Any time it is raining, snowing or blowing, assume elevated avalanche danger.
Confidence
Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Two pulses of precipitation are expected this weekend. The first, on Saturday, brings around 15-20 mm rain with strong SW winds and a freezing level near 2200 m (snow is possible up high). Late on Sunday and into Monday, it looks more hopeful for snow (5-15 cm) with the freezing level closer to 1500 m. However, the system on Sunday may move to the south and miss us. Winds switch briefly to the NW before swinging back to the SW. Weather models are not handling the developing situation well, so I have little confidence in the specifics of the weather forecast.
Avalanche Summary
Apart from small loose wet sluffs triggered by skiers on steep sunny slopes, no new avalanches have been reported in the past several days. Rain, snow and strong winds are expected to drive some avalanche activity this weekend.
Snowpack Summary
Rain on Saturday is likely to further weaken already moist snow. Wind slabs may be found at high elevations. In many areas, the snowpack is becoming moist and slowly turning into a more uniform, springtime snowpack. The surface has only seen limited refreezing these last few days. The most prominent feature in the snowpack is the thick late-February crust, down 5-20 cm. Limited reports suggest this crust is breaking down in some areas, while it remains supportive all the way to ridge crest in other spots. There are still weak layers below this crust. It is unclear whether these deeper layers are still reactive, but I would go with caution in case they are.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.