Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Despite a break in the weather today, it will still be easy to trigger a large avalanche failing on weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche will increase as you gain elevation. Use extra caution around steep terrain, especially in the alpine. Glide avalanches also remain a concern. The best way to manage that problem is to avoid traveling under open glide cracks. 

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Special Announcements

Looking to dust off your rescue skills? Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center is hosting a free avalanche rescue workshop next Saturday, December 14 at the Hatcher Pass – Fishhook (Marmot) Lot. Visit hpavalanche.org for more info.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    This week's storm has added stress to a weak snowpack, and there is still a good chance a person will be able to trigger a big avalanche despite the fact that the weather should be relatively quiet today.  We've seen widespread avalanche activity this week, and from the info we've gathered so far this season it seems the poor snowpack structure is fairly consistent across the Summit Lake area. This problem can best be managed by using more conservative terrain.

    As we look at a brief change in the weather pattern, consider how some things will change with the snowpack while others will remain the same.

    The Changes:

    • Lower elevations will likely see a melt/freeze crust forming, at least on the surface. While this may pose a problem weeks or months down the road, it should build strength in the short term. If that crust hasn't started forming yet, assume that it is still very likely you will be able to trigger wet loose avalanches in steep terrain.
    • Less active weather means a lower likelihood of seeing natural activity today.

    The Constants:

    • The weak, faceted snow at the ground has not been affected by this series of warm storms as much as the upper snowpack. Although the warm weather is slowly helping it gain strength, we are still seeing the classic combination for triggering a large avalanche - a slab of stiff snow sitting on top of a well-connected weak layer. This produced multiple large natural avalanches during the storm, and is currently primed to produce more avalanches given a (human) trigger.

    (12/5/2024)

    This problematic setup is present at upper elevations throughout most of the Summit Lake area.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The one-day lull in the weather is unlikely to have a major influence on the recent onslaught of glide avalanche activity. While it is true these avalanches are very difficult to predict, we should take all of the recent glide avalanches as a clear sign that conditions are ripe for more activity. Pay close attention to overhead terrain, and avoid spending any time below open glide cracks. These have been very large, and would be very hard to survive getting caught in.

    (12/4/2024)

    Recent glide avalanche and wet snow avalanches on Lonestar. Although difficult to predict, we expect there is still a very good chance we may see more glide avalanche activity today.

    Photo shared anonymously.

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