Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Lingering potential remains to trigger an avalanche that fails on weak layers deeper in the snowpack.  Our most recent evidence of the problem comes from the Aspen side, where a skier was caught in an avalanche yesterday and a large natural ran a few days ago.   Triggering one of these avalanches that breaks deeper into the snowpack will typically require a large load or just the right trigger point, most commonly in wind-drifted terrain.   There has been a rash of accidents around the state in the past two days: continue to assess the snowpack and travel strategically to guard against the threat of a large avalanche.   Yesterday's new snow has also drifted into small pockets of wind slab at higher elevations.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Over the past few weeks, we have observed an infrequent but continuous pattern of large avalanches or collapses failing on weak, faceted layers deeper in the snowpack. These include large natural avalanches in Express Creek and Carbonate Hill, and a remotely triggered avalanche on Mt. Emmons. Persistent slab activity has been most problematic on wind-loaded terrain this month, though issues also exist in a few areas below treeline.  Carefully assess the snowpack structure and give yourself a margin for error in handling this problem because there is a high degree of variability across the region and on different aspects.  

    2/23:  A large collapse and shooting cracks failed on weak, faceted snow about 3 feet deep on Mount Emmons.  Don't expect to get feedback like this before triggering an avalanche, but it's a clear sign of danger if you do.  

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    A few inches of snow since yesterday has been drifting into thin slabs at higher elevations from west to southwest winds.  Fresh wind slab formation will be most common below cornices and in crossloaded gullies, and will be small in size.  There is a lingering threat to still trigger a larger and older wind slab that formed last week in the same type of terrain.  Use caution in wind loaded terrain features, especially above terrain traps.  

    An example of shallow wind slabs, similar to what you can find today.  

Avalanche Discussion

Colorado saw a rash of avalanche accidents over the weekend, along with tragic outcomes in the San Juan Mountains, where last week's storm was most intense.  Two skiers were killed in an avalanche near Vallecito Reservoir, and a snowmobiler is still missing after an avalanche near La Manga Pass.  Locally, a skier was partially buried on a small slope on Saturday, and another skier was carried in an avalanche yesterday near Snowmass.  Last week's storm brought significant snowfall, relentless windloading, and dangerous conditions.  The danger is now trending down as storm and wind slab instabilities from last week are assessed to be generally unreactive or very isolated.  The threat of triggering a large avalanche remains most concerning in the Southeast Mountains, where several buried persistent weak layers have continued to sporadically produce signs of instability or avalanche activity this month.  Although we do not have evidence of the problem misbehaving in the deeper and stronger snowpack of the Northwest Mountains, our forecast team is still looking for it and discussing the uncertainty.  The layer of concern is a layer of facets or faceted crusts a few feet deep, which has produced collapses and avalanche activity up to the boundary of our two forecast zones, on Mount Emmons (Example A, Example B).    In the shallower parts of our forecast area, there is also the isolated threat of avalanches breaking on weak layers near the ground, exemplified by this unstable test result yesterday near Mt. Whetstone.  

Up to 5" of new snow and moderate west to southwest winds are forming shallow wind slabs at higher elevations.  Tonight's potent system will bring stronger winds and significantly more snow available for transport.  Wind slabs will grow larger and more widespread overnight, and the avalanche danger will rise accordingly.  

Events: The next Fireside Chat event is tonight at the new “billy barr” in the Elevation Hotel lobby, 7:00pm. Local guide Dave Bumgarner will be sharing pictures and stories from his recent trip to Antarctica. Enjoy drinks and food, and check out this new local spot.

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