Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The threat of human triggering a large persistent slab avalanche has increased after notable wind-loading occurred earlier this week. A large natural avalanche was observed on Wednesday, and CBAC forecasters human triggered another large avalanche on Thursday. This avalanche problem remains the most concerning on recently wind-loaded slopes and areas with a total snowpack height between about 3 and 5ft, or 100 to 150cm. As temperatures climb this afternoon, keep an eye out on steep sunny slopes for small loose wet avalanches.

 

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Persistent weak layers in the middle and at the bottom of the snowpack have temporarily become more reactive on recently wind-loaded slopes at near and above treeline elevations. These slabs are generally hard, will be stubborn to human triggering, but may produce a larger than expected avalanche if released. This avalanche problem has become less common in wind-sheltered areas, with the last notable avalanche having occurred in this terrain on 2/1. The safest riding can be found in wind-sheltered areas where the snowpack is uniform and consistently deeper than about 5 feet (150 cm)

    A large persistent slab that was human triggered on Thursday 2/9 in upper Hunter Creek.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    On Wednesday and into Thursday, strong west-to-north winds formed a fresh round of wind slabs. These slabs will likely have become hard and stubborn to trigger. As those slabs soften this afternoon in the sun and warm temperatures, they may become slightly more reactive. This avalanche problem is the most widespread at above-treeline elevations, and more isolated in distribution at lower elevations. Stay alert for this relatively small avalanche problem, especially if you are riding in consequential terrain above cliffs, gullies, or trees.

Avalanche Discussion

The recent wind events during the last week are creating some very different avalanche conditions in the NW Mountain forecast, compared to the SE Mountain forecast area. The wind slab problem between the two forecast areas isn't that notable. What's notable is how the buried persistent weak layers are holding up to this additional loading. The persistent slab avalanche problem has been the most problematic in the southeast mountains for some time now, and we are seeing it become more reactive with this recent round of loading. On Thursday, CBAC forecasters observed a large natural avalanche that had released in the previous 24 hours on a heavily wind-loaded slope. Yesterday CBAC forecasters headed out to have a look at that avalanche, and human triggered another large avalanche on a similar wind-loaded slope. Both of these avalanches stepped down into deeply buried weak layers. So in the SE Mountains the primary avalanche problem is this persistent slab avalanche problem. While in the NW Mountains the persistent weak layers have remained quiet and the primary avalanche problem there is the smaller wind slab avalanche problem. As we head into the weekend. The NW Mountains will be making their way towards normal caution and a low avalanche danger rating. Loose wet avalanche activity over the weekend should remain small in size and the wind slab avalanche problem will continue to become less reactive with each passing day. The SE Mountains will see less change, with the persistent slab avalanche problem continuing to dictate travel advice.  

 

 

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