Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

With temperatures cooling off and northwest winds increasing there are two main concerns today. There is still a chance a person could find a thin spot and trigger a very large avalanche on weak snow buried up to 4' deep above 2,500'. This problem is the most unlikely of the 2, but has the most serious consequences. The incoming wind could build some new wind slabs up to 1' deep in the upper elevations, but there isn't a lot of soft snow left to move around. Choose slopes with a clear runout and travel one at a time in steep terrain to reduce risk or choose low angle slopes to avoid these problems entirely.

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We learned of another fatal avalanche accident that occurred in Montana on Sunday. Last week there was an accident involving a large group outside of Lake Tahoe, and two fatal accidents in Utah. Our thoughts are with the victims, their friends and families, and all of the responders involved. Preliminary information may be found at mtavalanche.com, sierraavalanchecenter.org and utahavalanchecenter.org.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Natural wind slabs occurred last week especially towards the beginning of the wind event, but it is difficult to determine where and how big with crowns getting filled in so quickly. There were two human-triggered avalanches in Girdwood last week that are the same type we are concerned with in Summit Lake. These happened in Raggedtop Bowl last Thursday. Check out the reports here and here.

    It has been almost 3 weeks since a large avalanche has occurred on the weak snow that formed in Decemberin the Summit Lake area. There are a few reasons why this is still our main concern despite the lack of avalanches. 

    • Poor structure still exists in the snowpack with a large slab sitting on weak snow. This layer has gained strength over time, but these types of layers are very hard to fully trust and the consequences could be devestating if an avalanche occurs.
    • The large avalanches on the north side of the Girdwood area tell us that large avalanches could still occur in the right thin spot with the right load. That side of the Girdwood valley has a similar snowpack to Summit Lake.

    We think the chances of a person triggering one of these large avalanches is going down, but there is always some uncertainty with this type of problem. Some things you can do to reduce your exposure and vulnerability include checking safety gear at the parking lot, choosing safe, low angle up routes, avoid riding close to rocks, and travel one at a time in steep terrain while watching partners closely.

     

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Ridgetop winds are forecast to be in the 20 mph range today from the northwest, which would normally build large wind slabs. However, with two strong wind events last week there isn't a lot of soft snow in the upper elevations to move around. This problem today is going to be slope specific. Watch for blowing snow to know where it exists and avoid those places. The typical places include just under ridgelines, cross-loaded gullies, and steep rolls. A shooting crack or whumpf are red flags that indicate that slope is ready to avalanche. Even a small wind slab could be consequential if there are trees or cliffs below.

    (2/20/2026)

    Wind speeds are expected to increase today, but there isn't a lot of snow left to move around. Photo from Colorado last Friday during a strong northwest wind event.

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

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