Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Continued loading of the snowpack has created unstable and dangerous avalanche conditions. Large natural and human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain and on slopes steeper than 30 degrees that hold more than six inches of cohesive surface snow. Watch for red flags of instability. Use an assessment mindset and conservative terrain selection to reduce your exposure. Use extreme caution and avoid traveling directly in Avalanche Gulch or other major runout zones.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Stormy weather will gradually taper during daylight hours, but instabilities may persist longer than the weather itself. Red flags are Mother Nature’s neon warning signs indicating unstable conditions. Wind-loaded terrain presents both the highest likelihood and consequences for triggering large avalanches, which may fail several feet deep, either naturally or under the weight of a person. Watch for continued snow transport and remain suspicious of all leeward terrain presenting rippled or textured surfaces where slopes appear lens or dune shaped. Fresh wind lips, blowing snow, and cornices all point to slopes to avoid.

    Storm slabs typically form during or just after periods of heavy snowfall and fail on interfaces within the new or old snow. Dial back terrain choices during rapid loading. While said slabs are expected to be smaller, they can catch an unaware traveler off guard and run far and fast. Continue to observe, feel, and test for cohesive snow and shooting cracks on small test slopes to track this problem.

    (1/20/2024)

    An example of a storm slab avalanche that may be encountered today, as snow accumulates below treeline

    Photo: Samuel Clairmont

Avalanche Discussion

The storm has been a bit lackluster, and snow totals have underperformed so far, even with 2.61” of SWE over the last 24 hours. Conditions above treeline not been verified. With over two feet of snow forecast in the next 48 hours, uncertainty remains regarding how hazardous conditions may become. During potentially large storms, be prepared to self-evaluate conditions and follow best travel practices. 

An observation yesterday near Gray Butte revealed rimed surface grains and a fragile crust buried eight inches below the new snow. Both layers could serve as reactive interfaces for avalanches to fail on.

With a chance for low visibility and whiteout conditions, route-finding may be challenging today. It will not be hard to become disoriented and find yourself on or underneath dangerous slopes, especially near and above treeline. Careful navigation and route finding is essential. 

Bunny Flat is a busy, multi-use trailhead. Please be respectful of ALL users. Motorized users, RVs, trucks with trailers/toy haulers: Please park below and downhill of the bathrooms and “Motorized Use”  loading ramp signs. Loading and unloading at the ramp is permitted, but all vehicles and trailers must be moved and parked afterward. Motorized use is restricted to designated areas. Posted signage with QR codes provides maps of approved motorized zones. The Wilderness boundary is clearly signed. Citations are active. 

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