Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and wind will create dangerous avalanche conditions on northerly and east aspects as slabs form on top of a very weak and widespread persistent weak layer of facets and depth hoar. Cracking and collapsing are indications that you've found unstable snow. Take a conservative approach today sticking to wind sheltered terrain less than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    New snow is falling on a very weak snowpack of facets and depth hoar that formed in our shallow snowpack during the 3 plus weeks of dry weather in December. Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like cracking and collapsing, as these are indications that you've found this strong over-weak snowpack structure. With these types of conditions, it's possible to trigger an avalanche from flat terrain or adjacent slopes.  Any avalanche triggered could be large enough to injure or bury you while running on or near the ground. 

    A shallow and weak faceted snowpack is what existed before this recent storm. Expect most avalanches to fail somewhere in the old snow as over a foot snow has fallen top on top of this weak snowpack.

    (12/30/2025) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It's possible to trigger an avalanche within the new snow or at the old snow interface on a crust. The bulk of yesterdays snow was graupel and could be a weak layer within the new snow to trigger a storm slab avalanche. Much of the snow overnight most likely feel as low-density snow, and it may act more like a loose snow avalanche. These avalanches would be smaller, but more than likely will step or gouge down into weak facets and depth hoar near the ground. 

     

    Yesterday's snow (2 to 3 inches) fell as graupel and may be a weak layer within the new storm snow. Graupel tends to pool below cliffs and gentler terrain further down the down the slope 

    (1/8/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

Avalanche Discussion

It's nice to finally have winter back and a storm that has overproduced expected amounts. Storm totals early this morning are approaching a foot with 0.9" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  An additional 3 to 5 inches of snow is forecasted throughout the day with moderate winds that will shift to north and northeast as the low moves to our east. Snow is expected to tapper this afternoon as cold air gets pushed in bringing some of the coldest temperatures this season.  

The main avalanche concern is where new snow is falling on old snow. The missing ingredient, we've had is a slab, as there is a widespread faceted weak layer on northerly and east aspects above 10,500'. I suspect much of the snow overnight fell as low density snow with only light winds, so there is some uncertainty as to how to reactive this new snow will be or if it will act as slab. Winds are expected to pick up during the day and shift to the north and east. If the new snow is stiff enough to act as a slab, expect to find touchy conditions, as the weak layer is very easy to get to collapse. Yesterday, control teams reported soft slabs that were cracking and propagating easily below skis on the leeward sides of ridgelines. 

We're quickly approaching an inch of SWE and foot of snow, with intense snowfall rates this morning. It's possible we may reach a tipping point where we see natural avalanches if we get the forecasted amount during the day. This is the first test on our weak layers, and they will probably struggle to handle this much weight. Go in with the mindset today, that every slope is suspect until proven otherwise and that any avalanche triggered will likely fail on or near the ground in our persistent weak layers. 

It's been a slow to start to the winter, and this is coming off of one of the worst winters on record from last year. There's a lot of powder fever, and I certainly feel it. Try to dial back your terrain selection until we get a better grasp of how these weak layers are reacting to it's first storm.  There should be good turns to be had in slopes less than 30 degrees. 

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