Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The storm picks up slightly on Thursday, but warm temperatures and modest precipitation amounts will likely keep snow totals pretty meager. It might be just enough to build shallow slabs of wind drifted snow where you could trigger a small avalanche. Additional caution is warranted in very steep terrain at upper elevations, where a small slide could have high consequences. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    While there isn't much precipitation in the forecast, moderate winds could easily drift snow into shallow wind slabs. Actively blowing snow or a dappled texture to the snow surface are good ways to identify areas of wind drifting. Wind slabs may form over slick or weak surfaces, particularly at upper elevations. In most terrain, these avalanches wouldn't pose much of a hazard. But in very steep, confined, or cliffy terrain, a small avalanche could cause a dangerous fall. Use extra caution and consider steering around more aggressive terrain features. 

    (1/5/2026)

    Small pockets of wind, like this drifted snow, may be where you find unstable snow on Thursday. 

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday's snow totals weren't quite a total no-show, but it felt close. Some areas saw 1-2" of new snow, but much of the zone didn't even get that much. Thankfully, we'll see a bit more accumulation overnight and into Thursday, but it's still not a powerful storm by any standards. Warming temperatures won't help, and our lower elevations will likely see mostly rain, and even mid-elevations may transition to rain by Thursday afternoon. Since there won't be much fresh, dry snow to rain on, we expect that any wet loose activity will be limited to widespread rollerballs and snail armies. 

Where precipitation falls as snow, it will accumulate on a wide variety of surfaces, and we have significant uncertainty about how well it will bond. Melt-freeze crusts are the most common surface, but they vary in thickness and texture. Southern aspects have thick supportable crusts, often with heavy texturing and runnels. On the northerly aspects, crusts are weakening along with the snow beneath. In many areas, weak, faceted snow exists below and in between these melt-freeze crusts in the upper snowpack.   Surface hoar has also been observed in sheltered, shaded terrain throughout the zone. If you're out in the mountains, monitor how well the new snow bonds with the old surface. Where the new snow falls on weak or slick surfaces and slides easily, avalanches may be more likely with additional snowfall. 

Then there's dry ground across many low-elevation or south-facing slopes, reminiscent of early-season conditions. Some areas, like the Wenatchees, lack consistent snow coverage for on-snow recreation altogether. Plan ahead for challenging travel and keep a watchful eye out for exposed obstacles and open creeks.

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