Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Throughout the day, heavy snowfall and shifting winds will increase the avalanche danger. Today, 8-12 inches of snow is forecast to fall across the Selkirk and Cabinet mountains. This recipe will create storm slabs, sitting on yesterday's light density snow. As a result, dangerous avalanche conditions will increase on all aspects, especially on slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Be intentional with your decision making and be mindful of exposure to avalanche terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A quick moving storm will blanket the zone today. The storm is forecasted to favor the southern ends of the Selkirk and Cabinet mountains. Snow and wind have already increased, and the storm is expected to continue into Saturday. There is quite a bit of uncertianty with the incoming storm, but anticipate 8-12 inches of new snow with moderate to occasionally strong winds. The wind direction could change multiple times throughout the storm, increasing the snow load in specific areas. The existing snow surface is varied, but for the most part lacks slab structure. As a result, we may see stiffer storm slabs sitting on top of softer snow, creating instability. You'll want to be cautious on steep slopes especially near terrain traps and under-cutting slopes that have the potential to avalanche. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The current snowpack has two persistent weak layers of concern. Currently, the main concern is buried surface hoar just a few inches below the snowpack surface. The distribution of this layer, and its sensitivity is uncertain and may become more of an issue as we add a storm slab above it. Keep this in mind while out today and look for the buried surface hoar under the new snow. Let us know what you see!

    The second weak layer consists of facets at the Lucky Friday crust interface. These facets appear to be gaining strength, but we are still keeping tabs on them. This layer is producing stubborn to unreactive results.

    Sun crusts may also be found on southerly aspects, creating potential for a weak interface with today's new snow.

    (3/9/2023)

    Buried facets deep in the snowpack

    Photo: J Thompson

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, Jeff Thompson, Micah Krmpotich and Brian Hilland toured near Keokee Mountain, in the Selkirks. We experienced very little wind as we were looking at current conditons, with the anticipation of the arriving storm. After leaving Schweitzer's northern backcountry access gate we toured north and experienced light, fluffy and unconsolidated snow, which was easy to cut a skin track through. On southerly aspects we stumbled upon a slight crust formed in unsheltered areas, most likely a result of the direct sunlight earlier in the week. We decided to dig on a west facing aspect around 6200 feet, under an overcast sky, with little to light intermittent snowfall. Upon conducting a couple CT and ECT tests we concluded the biggest worry for today is the buried surface hoar layer which sits 8-10 cm's below the surface. We weren't concerned with it yesterday, but the arriving storm snow, sitting on top of it, is a concern. We found the buried surface hoar on all aspects, at upper elevations. It is difficult to predict how the arriving storm will affect the snowpack, but it's safe to say the avalanche danger will increase. How the old layers in the snowpack will react to the weight of the new snow is uncertain. 

Federal funding to support Avalanche Centers nationwide is limited. Remember that submitting an observation to expand the work of avalanche awareness comes from backcountry enthusiasts like you. If you are out sledding or riding during this upcoming storm cycle, feel free to submit observations and your support will enable IPAC to continue to help shape the weekly avalanche advisories and expand the IPAC education curriculum. You may always utilize the “Use Anonymously” option for reporting.  Contribute your observations here on the  Observations Page.

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