Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Rainfall and stormy conditions will taper off for most of Sunday, but you could still see large natural avalanches. Stick to simple terrain with minimal exposure to big slopes, cliff faces, or cornices above. If you experience heavy rainfall, assume the danger is rising rapidly and avoid travel on or near any terrain that could produce an avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Wet slab avalanches are said to be the hardest type to forecast, and Sunday is no exception. The heaviest rainfall should end well before sunrise, but there will still be plenty of water draining through and weakening the snowpack. Temperatures should fall a bit overnight and then rise again with another round of afternoon precipitation. The quantity of natural avalanche activity should significantly diminish, but those that do release will still be quite dangerous. Not to mention there is no way to figure out which slope or cornice will be the next to go. 

    The best you can do is just stay out of the way. Big slopes are the ones that can produce big avalanches. Cliffs and cornices should continue to shed snow that could trigger a larger avalanche below. Expect to see some combination of wet slab, glide, loose wet, and cornice fall avalanches by the end of the weekend. Wet, soggy, or sticky snow might make for difficult travel conditions at low and mid-elevations.

    An example of a wet slab avalanche from a rain event during a prior winter. They often release in unusual locations. It's also difficult to predict the timing of when they occur during a rain or warming event. In this photo, the avalanche debris and bed surface are covered by a bit of new snow.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    With an overnight drop in snow levels, dry-ish snow will fall, and fresh slabs will form, especially on wind loaded slopes. Unfortunately, the rain-snow line is forecast to push back into upper-elevation terrain in the afternoon. You might find some fun riding conditions first thing in the morning. Given continued wet avalanche activity, the dangers of moving into anything resembling real terrain are, well, real. If you do head out, pick and stick to low-angled slopes with little exposure to steeper terrain above.

    (3/19/2022)

    You are more likely to trigger a slab avalanche on steep, unsupported slopes and features like this convex roll. 

Avalanche Discussion

The strong wet storm has so far played out close to expected. At 5 p.m. on Saturday, temperatures had risen to 37F at 5000', south winds were very strong with extreme gusts, and around 1" of precipitation had fallen since the morning, mostly in the form of rain. The last few hours of the day brought the heaviest rain, with 0.2" falling each hour since 2 p.m. Needless to say, it's quite wet, and there is some amount of natural avalanche activity occurring. 

With an Avalanche Warning in effect for the day, observations were limited. Avalanche control work first thing in the morning produced wet avalanches in the 7" of moist snow that had fallen overnight.  Debris from large avalanches was spotted below the northwest side of Shuskan around midday. Loose wet and wet slab avalanches were reported from backcountry terrain adjacent to the Mt. Baker Ski Area. Hopefully, visibility on Sunday will allow for a chance to better see what level of avalanche activity occurred. 

 

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