Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger will increase throughout the day. If the upper end of forecasted snow accumulation arrives, it will be possible to trigger a large avalanche up to 18 inches thick on steep slopes at middle and upper elevations. Slab depths could be deeper and more sensitive in areas loaded by the wind. Atypical wind directions could load slopes in unusual locations. Look for wind-loading and shooting cracks to identify unstable snow. Use conservative decision-making around steep slopes if storm snow totals add up quickly by this afternoon.

A winter storm warning has been issued through Friday morning at 5 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The Tetons are forecasted to get 5-20 inches of snow by 5 pm, accompanied by light to moderate northeast winds. This is a huge accumulation range and creates uncertainty surrounding the avalanche hazard. If we receive the upper end of forecasted snow totals, we may find strom stabs of equal depths at middle and upper elevations. In areas exposed to the wind, expect slabs to be thicker on lee aspects where northeasterly winds will load slopes. I do not expect much natural avalanche activity unless we receive all the forecasted snow and the winds increase. Slabs could be sensitive to the weight of a rider.  Look for heavy snow, wind-loading, and cracking to help verify unstable snow. Pillows and drifts will help identify wind-enchanced slab depths that could be up to 2 feet on upper-elevations loaded slopes. Stick to lower angle slopes if storm totals start stacking up.

     

    Storm slabs can prove to be very reactive on steep terrain. 

     

Avalanche Discussion

There is a good amount of uncertainty with the weather forecast today, specifically the snow totals that could arrive by this evening. As you are out today, monitor storm totals and look for signs of unstable snow. Hand shears will provide information on how well new snow is bonding as well as the cohesiveness of any new slab development. If blocks of storm snow are shearing off with your hand, stick to lower angle slopes.  Here are a few other things to keep in mind today:

  • Variable Storm Depths - The northern Tetons are forecasted to get several more inches of snow. This may or may not pan out, but the advice remains the same - monitor storm depths as you ride, look for cracking and collapsing, and expect windy areas to hold thicker slabs.
  • Old Wind Slabs - Isolated areas of older wind slabs exist at upper elevations. These slabs were built by westerly winds, but signs of their existence could be buried by now snow. In addition, today’s northeasterly wind direction could build slabs on different aspects than the slabs from earlier in the week. Don’t let this catch you off guard, particularly where even a small, old windslab that is shallowly buried could knock you off your feet above dangerous terrain.
  • Cornices - Cornices are big this time of year. Many cornices have started cracking and can still break unexpectedly. Remember that they crack much further back than you expect - something to keep in mind as you climb ridges. Minimize the time spent on slopes beneath cornices.
  • Variable Surface Conditions - This is not an avalanche hazard but could be hazardous nonetheless. Remember that crusts are almost everywhere except on high, north-facing slopes and are only covered by a few inches of snow. 

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