Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We're coming out of a significant storm cycle. Avalanche danger is trending downward, but conditions are still dangerous. You could easily trigger large avalanches in wind-drifted snow. Avoid steep slopes with deep, pillow-like drifts and stick to shady or low-angle terrain to avoid wet avalanches. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds formed sensitive wind slabs on Tuesday, and observers reported both natural and human-triggered wind slab. We suspect these slabs are slowly gaining strength but give the weak snowpack time to adjust. Avoid slopes over 35 degrees on steep lee slopes below ridgelines. The most likely places to trigger large avalanches will be on the leeward sides of ridges at middle and upper elevations. Visual clues such as cornices and drifted pillow-like dunes will help you identify where the wind has transported snow. Choose well-supported lower-angle slopes or scoured aspects for travel in wind-exposed terrain. 

    Smaller storm slabs in sheltered terrain are also possible, so use test slopes or quick hand pits to assess conditions before committing to a large, steep slope. Cracking on test slopes or snow that slides easily in hand pit tests are signs the snow is still unstable. 

    (2/25/2025)

    Crown from natural wind slab in the Icicle Creek Drainage that likely occurred sometime between 2/24 and 2/25.

    6600ft, NE aspect

    Photo: Katie Warren

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    You may encounter wet avalanches where recent snow gets warm and moist in the sun. Easterly flow and inverted temperatures may help middle and lower elevations east of the Cascade Crest stay cooler than upper elevations. This makes for a complicated setup, you'll need to rely on your observations of the surface snow to avoid wet avalanches. If you feel the surface snow becoming wet, heavy, and sticking to your equipment, move to lower-angle terrain. 

    (2/24/2025)

    Loose wet avalanche (D1) in Tumwater Canyon

    Photo: Josh Hirshberg

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The snowpack likely stayed mostly dry at upper elevations. While we have a lot of uncertainty, this prolonged storm put a lot of extra weight on deeper weak layers associated with the January Drought. With limited observations and low visibility, we don't know much about the avalanche cycle at upper elevations. We suspect this to be an isolated and unlikely problem to encounter, but the consequences could be dire if you trigger one of these slides. Persistent slabs can break widely across terrain and are likely to be very large. It'll be best to work this uncertainty into your terrain selection by giving yourself greater safety margins while we give the snowpack more time to adjust. 

    (2/21/2025)

    A small skier triggered slab avalanche made clearly visible the two weak layer interfaces in the snowpack right now.

    Photo: Payton Schiff

Avalanche Discussion

On Tuesday, the East Central Zone picked up between 5 and 10 inches of snow above 4000ft, with higher snow totals closer to the Cascade Crest. Strong to extreme winds accompanied this storm, and Mission Ridge Summit Weather station recorded gusts to 115mph. Moving into Wednesday, we'll unfortunately begin another warming trend, although it will come with sunshine and dry weather this time. Easterly flow and a few high clouds should help keep the snow a bit cooler through Wednesday before conditions really heat up toward the end of the week. 

Tuesday's snow and wind created sensitive wind and storm slabs throughout the area. A large natural wind slab in the Icicle Creek Drainage released in a wet snow layer below the recent snow. In this heavily wind-loaded area the avalanche was 2-3 feet deep. At Mission Ridge Ski Area, ski patrol reported sensitive 6-8inch, widely propagating avalanches during avalanche mitigation work. Over the weekend, a widespread wet, loose avalanche cycle occurred on Blewett Pass, closing the highway for a few hours on Sunday. A similar cycle occurred, closing Tumwater Canyon on Monday. On the 23rd, observers from the Holden area reported widespread natural slab and wet loose avalanches. Some were very large and may have run on the January Drought layer. We suspect after this big warm-up, those deeper weak layers may no longer be an issue to avalanches, but we don't have enough information to say that with any confidence yet. 

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