Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Generally safe avalanche conditions exist, but low danger does not mean no danger. It's becoming unlikely but not impossible to trigger a persistent slab avalanche where you find a stiffer more cohesive on top of depth hoar and facets below. Watch for obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks on the surface or firm harder slabs at upper elevations. Ground hazards like rocks and downed trees and logs continue to remain a concern in our still very shallow snowpack for February.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Although unlikely to trigger an avalanche, there is still a low possibility that you find the right slab/weak layer combination. The most likely slopes will be found on steep northerly and some east aspects mainly at upper elevations where you find hard slabs that rest on top of weak depth hoar or facets.  These stubborn hard slabs will be easy to identify as they will bet the most enticing slopes to ski or ride and feel firm underfoot as most all other terrain has been stripped back to bare ground. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and collapses may not be present but will take you finding a "sweet spot" on the margins of the slab where it's easier to impact weak layers below.  

Avalanche Discussion

It's been a weird winter for us here in northern NM, and that trend will continue as spring-like weather for the beginning of February is going to continue through the weekend. Warm temperatures and strong winds are forecasted for the next several days, before hopefully a more active weather pattern and colder temperatures return for next week. Skiing and riding conditions are not great right now and ground hazards continue to be the biggest issue as we've just struggled to build a base this year. Hopefully everyone is enjoying climbing, biking, boating or cruising groomers, because it's less than inspiring conditions in the backcountry right now.  

The record-breaking temperatures in northern NM over the last several days have had a big impact in our mountains, with south aspects melting back to bare ground and west and east aspects having 5- 15cm melt-freeze crusts on them. Although temperatures got above freezing at all elevations on Monday and Tuesday, moderate to strong winds over the last four days have helped preserve some of the more northerly and upper elevation snow. Below treeline on north (shady) aspects, you can still find "softish" snow that was saved from the warm temps and our intense sun here at this southerly latitude in the U.S. On these slopes, we were finding a settled and stiffened slab from the low-density snow we had last Thursday. At upper elevations, strong winds over the last several days have stripped and scoured windward terrain and drifted and pressed the snow into firm hard slabs, mainly on northerly and east aspects.  Strong winds today and through the weekend will continue to press these snow surfaces into harder slabs at upper elevations. 

Even though we had 4 days at or above freezing with temperatures hitting 50 F for two days at 9300', we weren't finding much water percolating down into in the snowpack. This is probably a factor of not having much moisture in the snowpack. Most of the snowpack already consisted of depth hoar from the long November through January drought and only had the 15-18"  low-density snow from last Thursday on top. At lower elevations on solar aspects, last Thursday's snow has mainly just melted away. 

The big thing we were finding is that depth hoar and our persistent weak layers continue to remain incredibly weak and fragile. We are not seeing any signs of healing in our shallow snowpack. These persistent weak layers  will be a concern next week with what looks to be a more active weather pattern and a return to winter again. 

There is some hope as long-range models are showing storms impacting our area at the beginning of next week and continuing into next weekend. This will bring changing avalanche conditions, but will also bring much needed moisture for our region as we look towards fire season and spring. 

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