Avalanche forecast

Mt Hood

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Thursday is shaping up to be another very dangerous day as a powerful storm continues to bring heavy snow, rain, and extreme winds to Mt. Hood. Avalanches may be large,  easy to initiate, and could run naturally. Don’t test your luck: avoid all areas where avalanches can start, run, or stop. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Over two feet of new snow has fallen on a warming trend, and additional heavy accumulation is on the way as winds continue to increase into the extreme range. Large to very large avalanches remain a real concern as new snow continues to pile up. Wind-loaded areas will harbor the thickest, most reactive slabs, but any steep, open slope could produce a large enough avalanche to bury or kill a person. 

    There’s enough recent snowfall and warming that very large avalanches (D3 or greater) aren’t out of the question. These can fail far on the upper mountain or from the upper elevations and gouge far into upper canyon terrain. It won’t be the day to poke in or around steep terrain - just simply avoid traveling on or below avalanche terrain. 

    (1/6/2024)

    Avalanches have the potential to be very destructive on Thursday, even in more wind-sheltered terrain. This picture is an example of a similar loading event that produced a destructive avalanche in the Pea Gravel Glades. Don't run your normal playbook.

    Photo: Jack Kuenzle

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Triggering wet avalanches will be likely at lower and some middle elevations as snow levels spike to 5500 ft on Wednesday evening. By Thursday morning, the lower elevation snowpack should feel wet, sloppy, and primed for human-triggering on steeper slopes. A natural wet avalanche cycle is likely to occur on Wednesday night as snow levels peak. This natural activity may carry over through the early part of the day. These could pack some weight and grow large given the amount of recent snowfall, so minimize your time spent on or under slopes of consequence where the snowpack feels wet or sticky. 

    (12/28/2024)

    An example of a large wet avalanche from last season. These could be a similar size on Thursday.

    Photo: Mt Hood Meadows Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

As of Wednesday afternoon weather stations have picked up 19-23 inches of new snow ( > 2” SWE) and very strong southwest winds. The heaviest of the loading (and warming) is forecast to occur on Wednesday night which should set the stage for natural avalanche cycle. Unfortunately, this will likely mean rain-on-snow through the lower-elevation band during this overnight period. Snow levels will drop slightly during the morning hours, but the snowpack will likely remain ripe for human-triggering as snowfall continues to pile up through Thursday.

Wednesday was a stormy and reactive day to be out. The Mt. Hood Meadows Pro Patrol reported triggering numerous soft slabs that failed up to 12” deep during the morning hours. These slabs were larger in wind loaded terrain. Other observers reported sensitive wind drifted snow and snowpack tests often failing on isolation. These columns failed 1.5 feet deep on the low-density snow that fell on 3/10.

All the recent snow since the 9th has piled up over a widespread stout crust that is often boot & ski supportable. Fortunately, this robust crust is limiting deeper layers of concern. Moving forward, avalanches will likely either fail on or just above this crust within the recent storm snow.

Regions covered