Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Backcountry avalanche conditions are dangerous at this time. Riders and skiers are likely to trigger avalanches today. These avalanches could be small to large in size and could occur on all aspects and elevations. Do not underestimate how weak the snowpack is and do not let weekend enthusiasm cloud your judgement. Avoid being in or under steep avalanche terrain, including small slopes near creeks or in steep trees. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Weak snow lies buried in the snowpack. These weak layers were formed during dry periods in December and in some areas, November. Several recent avalanches have occurred involving these layers. Soft to Hard slab avalanches could be easily human triggered today with depths of one to three feet.  This weak snow can be found in avalanche terrain on all aspects and elevations. These slabs could fail on approach or after a slope has been tracked.  Increasing temperatures and sunlight will increase the sensitivity of these slabs this afternoon.

    See recent avalanche occurrences: Breccia, Togwotee Pass. 

    (1/18/2024) Photo: Andrew Florkey

    Persistent slab avalanche highlighting terrain traps to avoid. Riders also observed collasping (whomfing) on flat terrain nearby. 

Avalanche Discussion

Unstable Snowpack

The likelihood of natural avalanches has decreased, bringing the rating from High to Considerable. The decrease in rating is not an indication that more terrain is safe to ride.  It is not. The decrease in sensitivity means instead of failing on approach or as the first person enters terrain, slabs may fail after a slope has been tracked several times. For the most part skier or rider traffic is doing nothing to break up the weak layers. They are preserved and will fail if impacted by the right forces.

The weather forecast is for warming into the mid-thirties. Warming could be even more dramatic if the forecast high clouds are particularly thin. Settlement rates will be continue to be high as the snowpack rapidly adjusts to the recent loading. The likelihood of triggering slab avalanches will certainly increase today and the chance for wet slides may also develop. Whoomphing and collapse are obvious signs of just how unstable the snowpack is. However, if you do not experience either, do not think the weak layer is not present.  Do not let good visibility, or larger crowds impact cautious decision making. This weakness will persist for a while and vigilance to conservative choices is warranted. Use caution even in terrain that is familiar and "never slides".  

The recent avalanche on Breccia emphasizes why you need to be aware of the terrain you are traveling below. Crossing large avalanche paths in the upper elevations even in flat terrain will remain very dangerous.  Avoiding steep slopes, especially in terrain traps such as large creeks and gullies, will be necessary across all elevations. 

Regions covered