Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche in most terrain is unlikely but may be possible on steep slopes above treeline.   Challenging approaches and exits through thin snowpack continue to present a significant hazard.  Beware of loaded starting zones and locations where a small slide could carry a skier or rider over cliffs or into trees.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack remains the primary hazard on slopes of nearly all elevations and aspects.  This is a challenging problem to negotiate as it presents a low probability but high consequence scenario.  The exception is mid and low-elevation south-facing slopes, where snow coverage is minimal and solar radiation has reduced the early season snowpack.  Steeper slopes at high elevations present the most significant probability of being triggered.  Skiers and riders entering the backcountry should understand this hard-to-predict risk.  Ski one at a time, and stop in the safest zones possible.

Avalanche Discussion

Overall, avalanches on most aspects and elevations are unlikely, but this is not the entire story.  Throughout the backcountry, a persistent slab problem of basal facets and depth hoar presents the primary avalanche hazard.  This weak layer has been found on almost all slopes and aspects above and near treeline.  Yesterday, basal facets were found on south-facing slopes at upper elevations.  Triggering an avalanche is possible on this terrain, but it would take just the right trigger point or a significant load on the slope to result in a slide.  Northeast facing slopes continue to harbor the greatest risk and the most established bed of depth hoar.

Conditions are currently variable across the peaks. In the last 24 hours, the Peaks have received 2-7 inches of fresh snow.  Snow depths in Humphrey's Cirque range from just 55 cm on subtle ridgelines to over 160 cm in snow-drifted areas.  Riders and skiers are advised to descend with caution as numerous rocks and logs continue to be covered in some areas by just a few inches of snow.  Yesterday, an extended column test propagated on depth hoar on a southern-facing slope at approximately 11,500' at 10 cm from the bottom, demonstrating that there is at least a moderate level of propagation likelihood.  Additionally, a triple layer of crusts and facets is present in the upper snowpack on most southern-facing slopes. Below the first crust rests approximately 2 cm of near-surface facets overlaying an ideal bed surface.   If this layer were to be loaded by wind or new snow, it would probably create enough stress to trigger a natural avalanche cycle.  This layer may become a problem in the future if it were to receive a large snow event; however, it will most likely be affected by solar radiation in the coming few days.  In general the snowpack is showing poor structure, moderate strength, and moderate propogation propensity.

With the new snow deposition, continue to be on the lookout for small wind slab avalanches.  Snow transport has been minimal over the past 24 hours, but small wind slabs could exist in isolated terrain.  Yesterday, some cracking was noted in a drift near the upper Humphrey's ridgeline. 

Thus far, no avalanches have been observed or reported this season.  This is due to the thin snowpack and the fact that slopes have yet to receive a significant snowstorm.   Egress and regress remain challenging, but they are starting to become more realistic and achievable with less effort.  The typical array of obstacles: boulders, rocks, stumps, and logs, are the primary hazard for those looking to earn some backcountry turns.  Be prepared to walk over some wind-affected terrain. and negotiate continued early season conditions.

Regions covered