Avalanche forecast

Elkhorns

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The recent warming temperatures and high snow levels have created a slab (strong snow), which will again test weak snow buried 2'+ down from the snow surface.  The chances of triggering a large avalanche remain "possible" and the most likely locations are very steep slopes, with rocky features.   With uncertainty remaining amongst forecasters with how this warmup will affect known weak snow layers it's best to continue to ride in simple terrain.  

Today's forecast is sponsored by the Wallowa County Gamblers Snowmobile Club.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    There is always uncertainty about how persistent slab avalanches will react to change. We do know that any change makes them more likely to occur. The addition of new wet heavy snow and warm temperatures again today may test the balance and cause these avalanches to release. Triggering one of the 2-4' deep slabs would have disastrous consequences.

    Avoiding terrain where this problem lies is the best way to stay out of harm's way.

    We don't have extensive knowledge on how the wet heavy snow may influence weak layers now buried 2'+.  There was an observation from a Pro Observer in the Southern Wallowas on Jan 19th of a skier-triggered avalanche on weak faceted snow.  

     

    (1/19/2024)

    Skier triggered avalanche 1/19/24 in the Southern Wallowas.

    Photo: Nick Burks

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Winds will continue to move snow around above the treeline today.  This wind-stiffened snow will have the following characteristics- dune-like formations, textured or rippled surface appearance, stronger/denser snow overlying softer snow.  Triggering a wind slab, even one that's relatively small could lead to a larger and more destructive avalanche if it were able to "step down" to weaker snow buried 2-4' below the snow surface.  

    (1/13/2024) Photo: Caleb Merrill

Avalanche Discussion

New snow, wind, and relatively warm temperatures with a snow level hovering around 5,500' today will give you a run for your money.  With a variety of possible avalanche problems and stormy weather, it's a great time to stick to "simple" terrain and limit your exposure to "challenging" terrain.  Please send us your observations as they help us fill our holes in knowledge and could save a life!

Wet snow avalanches are still on the table for terrain below the treeline.  Roller balls, pinwheels and saturated snow are all good signs the surface snow is uncohesive and could be potentially dangerous.  

As mentioned above there is much uncertainty around what makes persistent slab avalanches release. When we have increased uncertainty we must increase our margins of safety. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making remain essential to avoid this avalanche problem.

Regions covered