Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A storm favoring the east slopes of the Cascades could overload a weak snowpack in the eastern portion of the zone. You could trigger very large avalanches that break across terrain features. Choose conservative travel and stay out from under large avalanche paths, particularly in the Wenatchee Mountains. Small avalanches in the recent snow are the primary concern in other areas of the zone. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    A few inches of new snow may build small storm slabs where you could trigger an avalanche. New snow could fall on ice crusts from a freezing rain event on Friday in some areas and may not bond well to these slick surfaces. Terrain over 35 degrees, large open slopes, or steep rollovers are likely areas to trigger these avalanches. Use Kickturn tests, small test slopes, or hand pits to observe the bond to the old snow surface. If these produce cracking or fail easily, avalanches are more likely. There isn't much new snow in the forecast, so most avalanches would be small but use caution in steep terrain where a fall or slide could have serious consequences. In the eastern portion of the zone, even small avalanches could step down to more deeply buried weak layers, propagate across terrain features, and become very large.

    (1/19/2024)

    Kickturn tests as you travel are a good way to observe the strength of the new/old snow interface. 

    Photo: Caya Johnson

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    There were multiple human triggered, large avalanches that ran on the Solstice Crust at Blewett Pass on Saturday. The snowpack in the Wenatchee Mountains is thin and weak. If you are traveling in the eastern portion of our zone, avoid steep terrain. You could trigger one of these avalanches from low-angle terrain below or adjacent to steep slopes.These lingering persistent slab problems take a lot of patience to manage. While most recent avalanches have occurred in wind loaded terrain, we can not rule out these dangerous avalanches in steep sheltered terrain. Use conservative terrain management. Keep a wide buffer between where you travel and large avalanche paths. Only expose one person at a time to avalanche terrain. Avoid steep terrain where a smaller avalanche could step down to these deeper weak layers. This problem is especially prominent in the eastern portion of the zone near Mission Ridge and Blewett Pass. The Wenatchees have received very little snow since Jan 12th, and still, every few days, a skier or snowmobiler triggers an avalanche on weak, faceted snow over the Solstice Crust. Many of these slides were triggered remotely from adjacent slopes. With conditions this sensitive, even 4-5 inches of new snow overnight could be the tipping point to increase the chances of triggering one of these large and dangerous avalanches. While we think these avalanches are becoming more difficult to trigger in other areas of the zone, the weak structure still exists in these areas but is more deeply buried. If you got unlucky and hit a thin spot, you could trigger an avalanche 2-4ft deep that may propagate widely.

    (1/19/2024)

    Remotely triggered avalanche near Blewett Pass on January 19th. 1-2ft deep and 30-50ft across. 

Avalanche Discussion

A few inches of snow overnight will likely fall on freezing rain and melt-freeze crusts that formed from rain and warm temperatures on Friday and Saturday. You could find a variable bond with this old snow surface, so make frequent observations as you travel. 

We have had few observations from upper elevations since this stormy period, increasing our uncertainty in snowpack conditions in alpine terrain. Build wider margins into your travel plans to account for this, and pay attention to warning signs such as collapsing, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches. 

If temperatures are warmer than forecasted or the sun pokes out tomorrow, you could see some rollerballs or small, wet, loose avalanches, but we don't expect them to be a widespread issue. 

I was out in the Teanaway Drainage on Friday, and while visibility was limited, we could see what looked like a widely propagating avalanche and a smaller but deep avalanche. Both were in wind-loaded terrain across the valley and likely ran earlier last week. We found the interface from 1/16 becoming more stubborn, but a melt-freeze crust buried on 1/8 produced propagating test results. 

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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