Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We have issued a Special Avalanche Bulletin for all forecast zones. Avalanche conditions are very dangerous, and it is very likely a person will trigger a very large avalanche, potentially hundreds to thousands of feet wide and 3 to 4' deep. Travel in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: We saw the aftermath of the most recent storm as skies cleared yesterday afternoon, with very wide-propagating avalanches from Girdwood to Seward. In Turnagain Pass, there were large natural avalanches on the front side of Seattle Ridge, Wolverine, and Magnum. Most of the west face of Cornbiscuit failed with one avalanche. A person triggered a massive avalanche remotely from flat terrain below the Widowmaker path on the back side of Seattle Ridge, and another group triggered a large avalanche from 100 to 150' away just one bowl to the south. There was also significant activity in the Girdwood Valley and along the Seward Highway Corridor just south of Girdwood.

    This weekend has us on edge. We're on the heels of a major loading event on top of a problematic snowpack, we just witnessed a very impressive natural cycle, and people have already triggered very large avalanches from flat terrain. All of this is a recipe for an avalanche accident, and we are urging everyone to recognize the severity of the current conditions. Travel in and below avalanche terrain is not recommended today.

    Conditions are touchy right now due to the magnitude of the recent storm combined with poor snowpack structure beneath the new snow. Girdwood received 3 to 4' snow (3.8" SWE), while Turnagain Pass recorded 1.5 to 2' snow (1.7" SWE). This came in with extreme easterly winds, which briefly changed directions yesterday afternoon, effectively loading all aspects within the past 24 hours. All of this new and windblown snow is adding a lot of weight to a weak layer of advanced facets, now buried 2 to 4' deep or deeper. The layer was very reactive ahead of this storm and has now been pushed to its breaking point. Based on the human-triggered avalanches yesterday, we are seeing clear signs that this layer is seriously concerning.

    The only way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling on or below steep slopes.  This is not a typical storm snow issue that will improve in a day or two—it will take time to heal.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    The new and windblown snow from the past three days is expected to remain reactive today. Though it will likely be slightly more stubborn than it was yesterday, it is still likely a person will be able to trigger a big avalanche, even if it doesn't impact the deeper weak layers discussed in Problem 1 above. This storm came in warm and wet, dropping 2 to 4' of heavy snow on top of the dry, low-density surface that existed before the storm.

    Winds have remained strong since it stopped snowing, and there is likely a fresh round of touchy wind slabs that have formed. These may have formed further downslope than we often see, which is another out-of-the-ordinary pattern making conditions unusually dangerous today. While this adds complexity to the avalanche equation, the terrain management is simple: avoid traveling in avalanche terrain for now.

    Upper elevation estimated storm totals since Wednesday night are listed below:

       Snowfall   Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)  Girdwood  3-4'  3.8  Portage  2-4'  3.8  Turnagain  1.5-2'  1.6  Summit  1.5'  1.7  Seward  2-3'  3.1

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