Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Incremental new precipitation and snowfall, with small wind slabs at upper elevations, does not change the underlying, low likelihood-high consequence, Persistent Slab problem that is now buried 2 to 4 feet below the surface. Factor in consequences of a large avalanche, including being mindful of your positioning on slopes relative to overhead hazards, as you select terrain today. Investigate the possibility of new wind slabs on upper-level start zones and generally default to lower angle terrain when in doubt.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Over the last several days, significant settlement from warming and time has helped stiffen the snowpack above and below multiple persistent weak layers that drove our avalanche hazard for much of February. An avalanche triggered in any one of these buried layers - surface hoar or faceted snow around crusts - would be large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. The likelihood of getting into trouble with one of these avalanches has generally been on a decreasing trend, but with the return of snowfall and wind overnight, that trend might switch directions if either of these variables come in stronger than expected. 

    Classic red flags like shooting cracks, audible collapses, and fresh avalanches have almost completely diminished making problems lurking below harder to detect. However, unstable snowpack tests and reports of recent avalanches confirm our deeper snowpack concerns remain intact for now. Aspects that primarily face north through east, where lingering reactivity in snowpack tests have been observed, have produced the most recent and largest avalanches. Slopes that face south and southwest received the most significant warming and settlement within the last week contributing to deminished reactivity on those aspects, particularly within the 5500 feet to 6500 feet elevation band. Continue to make thoughtful terrain decisions and give yourself an extra margins of safety while we wait for this problem to fully subside.

    (2/23/2026)

    This avalanche was triggered just from traveling on the flat ridge above. Northeast aspect, near 6,700'. The slide initially failed on the Valentine's Day buried surface hoar, but broke within the recent storm snow, too. 

    February 23, 2026. 

    Photo: Izzy Davis

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    With snowline beginning above 6000 feet on Wednesday, wind problems will be confined to our upper-level elevation band on Wednesday. Lookout for new wind slabs forming on southeast through northwest slopes below ridgelines and on the lee side of terrain features as increasing winds out of the southwest swing to the west this afternoon. As winds continue to increase Wednesday night into Thursday, and especially if snow totals outperform the forecast, lookout for wind slabs of increasing size and sensitivity. Styrofoam-like lenses of snow, snow surfaces transitioning from soft to stiff, and shooting cracks are all common signs of new wind slabs.

    (2/24/2026)

    Large cornices, primed to fail when temperatures increase, are hanging over the lee side slopes.

    Photo: Mikey Church

Avalanche Discussion

The warm-wet rain to snow event of Wednesday is forecast to transition to a significantly cooler period of unsettled weather by Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday onwards, meaning at least the storm is coming in right side up. Optimistically, the warm wet snow will bond well to a variety of surfaces, ranging from sun crusts to wind board, and not present a notably dangerous new snow hazard, aside from wind slabs at upper elevations, as expected new snow totals are not overwhelming.

However, don’t let this somewhat benign description of the current storm distract you from the persistent slab avalanche problem that continues to dwell below. At this point careful readers of the avalanche reports are likely growing weary of hearing about these pesky persistent weak layers, as are the forecasters, but our fatigue does not diminish their significance. Even though we have seen tapering off of avalanche activity, numerous pit tests show the continued presence and propagation potential of surface hoar buried on Valentine’s Day and crust/facet/surface hoar combos from late January. Add to that recent avalanches, and avalanche accidents, on these layers in neighboring forecast zones in the Canadian Selkirks and Flathead, and there should be enough evidence to suggest a cautious approach to terrain selection is still warranted. One of these incidents resulted in a fatal avalanche accident, a mere 6 miles north of our Selkirk Mountain forecast boundary near Kootenay Pass.

 Be prepared to dial back a bit if snow totals and/or wind speeds exceed the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. As the storm transitions colder and winds ramp up Wednesday night be on the lookout for the wind slab problem to migrate down to our mid elevation band, 5,500 to 6,500 feet. Areas directly below ridges, on sidewalls of gullies, and behind steep convex rolls are the common places for drifted areas to be a nuisance for longer. Wednesday’s rain on snow upward of 6,000 feet is expected to be low volume and with transition to colder temperatures, so we are not anticipating wet snow problems to become a significant threat today. However, you should still monitor the snow surface and if you see signs of wet snow problems, like rollerballs, pinwheels or snow sticking to skis or skins migrate to lower angle terrain.

 Snow lovers cross our fingers in hopes that the Polar jet that meteorologists are starting to talk about materializes next week and the stars align for a March miracle.

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