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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2015–Feb 20th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Does green mean go? No! Keep your wits about you: avalanches are still possible in isolated areas.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Any lingering precipitation should peter out by Saturday, leading into a dry week. Temperatures warm on Sunday, when the freezing level is forecast to spike up to 2700 m. Winds are light to moderate from the north.

Avalanche Summary

Recent activity has been limited to small loose wet avalanches on steep sunny terrain features.

Snowpack Summary

Cornices may be large and potentially fragile. On high north-facing terrain light amounts of cold, low density snow overlie a widespread thick hard crust. Below about 2000 m, there is no snow on the crust and surface runnels show the effect of last week's rain showers. Sun-exposed slopes became moist, or wet with recent daytime warming and solar radiation and are also likely refrozen. Below the surface crust, the snow may still be moist; however, the mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-consolidated. Most of the terrain below treeline is below threshold for avalanche activity.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.