Strong solar radiation and mild temperatures this weekend will result in elevated avalanche danger during the day, particularly on sun-exposed slopes.
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure should maintain sunny and dry conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Freezing levels should rise to 1500m on Saturday and 1600-1800m on Sunday, with cool temperatures overnight. Winds are generally light from the south. A weak system could bring light to moderate precipitation on Monday, but the timing and strength of this system is still a little uncertain. The freezing level should drop to around 1200m as the system approaches.
Avalanche Summary
Recent avalanche activity includes skier and explosive controlled avalanches to Size 1.5 from exposed wind-loaded features. The average depth was around 15-30cm. There were also several cornice failures reported but most did not trigger slabs below.
Snowpack Summary
Solar aspects are likely going through a melt-freeze cycle with frozen snow overnight becoming moist through the day. Snow and wind created fresh wind slabs and storm slabs on Tuesday. Heavy snow which fell last week is settling rapidly and gaining strength. Cornices are large and threaten slopes below. A persistent weakness, formed in mid-February, continues to produce hard, sudden planar results in snowpack tests. The likelihood of triggering this layer has gone down, but very large avalanches remain possible, which could be triggered by a shallower avalanche or cornice fall. The snowpack depth at treeline is 350-500cm.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.