Avalanche Forecast

Becoming cloudy Saturday with occasional very light snow, mainly during the afternoon. Only light amounts of new snow are expected through the day Saturday, if any. Winds should be mostly southerly and light. 

Moderate to locally strong E-NE winds Tuesday night and Wednesday have loaded unusual aspects and built wind slab in all elevation bands. These wind slabs continue to heal and bond, but the cold temperatures are slowing that process. 

Watch for lingering wind slabs and avoid terrain where even a small slab avalanche could have unintended consequences. Remember to watch for firmer wind transported snow on all slope aspects or cross loaded slopes, especially in areas with varied terrain and modified wind directions. . 

Along all of the east slopes the 12/17 PWL persistent slab problem is gaining strength, has become more deeply buried and less sensitive in snowpack tests. However, continue to avoid large open terrain in areas where an overall shallow snowpack exists like the Mission Ridge/Blewett Pass area or where you find this layer in snow pits, especially if you experience direct observations such as whumpfing or shooting cracks.

Weather and Snowpack

A low pressure system moved across western Washington on Saturday night, followed by cold Arctic air. NWAC stations along the east slopes picked up about 4 inches of snowfall by Sunday morning with west winds.

An unusual reverse orographic, moist east flow caused significant snowfall along the east slopes of the central to south Cascades Sunday afternoon and night. NWAC stations along the east slopes received 1-3 feet of snow on Monday morning with the most snow recorded from Blewett Pass to Mission Ridge.

Fair cold weather with east winds were seen on Monday and Tuesday. Fair and cold weather continued Wednesday with easterlies moderate at Pass level and strong NE winds near ridgetops and above treeline seen at the Washington Pass and Mission Ridge stations.

Sunny weather continued Thursday and Friday with slightly warmer temperatures. Crest level winds shifted from moderate easterly Thursday morning to light to moderate westerly by Thursday evening. Winds were generally light Friday. 

Recent Observations

Tom Curtis was out at Mt. Lillian Friday, 12/30 and found reactive wind slabs along ridges with shooting cracks and whumpfing on north aspects near 5900 feet. The wind slab was likely collapsing down to the 12/17 PWL about 25-35 cm down. Wind slabs were found on NW-E-SE aspects with some wind loading apparent well below treeline.

Ski tourers in the Washington Pass area Saturday 12/31 reported no results from hand shears in the near and below treeline bands and no avalanches while avoiding possible wind loaded terrain above treeline. Nice, low cohesion surface snow conditions were reported below treeline. 

On Sunday 1/1 reports from multiple snow pits by Mission Ridge patrol testing the basal facet layer, now indicate a much stronger more settled snowpack from a week ago. The basal facets remain intact, but show signs of rounding and overall consolidation and bonding.

The NCMG at the hairpin at Washington Pass on New Years Day found that new snow was causing loose dry avalanches on steep terrain. While north winds were quickly forming touchy wind slabs.

The Mission Ridge ski patrol had their hands full with about 34 inches of new snow and strong northeast winds on Monday morning. It was not possible for them to visit lee S-W slopes were likely new, deep wind slab was expected.

The NCMG was out again at the hairpin at Washington Pass on Monday and found 20-25 cm of storm snow and no significant signs of instability.

There was a solo skier who triggered, was caught and killed in a slide in the Crystal Mountain backcountry. The avalanche likely occurred Wednesday, 1/4 and was discovered Thursday. Initial report here: