Avalanche Forecast

Good

Wednesday: Cloud and flurries, turning to snow late in the day, with heaviest amounts (up to 10cm) in the southern part of the region. Freezing level 700m. Light to moderate southerly winds, except in the far south, where moderate south-westerlies are expected.Thursday: Sun, cloud and flurries. Light to moderate north-westerlies. A few cm snow in the far south. Friday: Cloudy. Strong westerlies. The next pulse of precipitation probably won't reach the South Columbia until Saturday.

A widespread cycle of avalanche activity has not let up for the last 7 days. Natural activity (up to size 3.5) spiked following the heaviest snowfalls on Tuesday night and Friday night, and during solar warming on Monday. Destructive (up to size 3) avalanches are still being triggered remotely and accidentally by skiers and machinery, including a snowmobile remotely triggering a size 2 slab from 100m below and a helicopter remotely triggering a size 3 slab, which ripped out multiple start zones and previously skied slopes, from 300m away. These are failing on upper snowpack persistent weaknesses, on almost all aspects and elevations. Conditions are not expected to improve quickly.

Tricky snowpack conditions continue, which will require a high degree of training and judgement to evaluate safely. 60-140cm of recent storm snow is slowly settling/stiffening above the Feb 16. surface hoar layer and the early Feb interface. A storm snow weakness down about half a metre is touchy in some areas. The early Feb interface consists mainly of surface hoar (widespread) or a melt-freeze crust (on solar aspects). It is challenging to pin down exactly where you are most likely to trigger these persistent weaknesses. Some operators are most concerned around treeline, others on solar aspects, and others on almost any slope, including low-angled terrain. Remote, natural and human-triggered avalanches have been observed all over. You will need to investigate the snowpack in your local area to find and test these layers. Triggering wind slabs is becoming less likely, but they exist on many slopes and bury the upper snowpack weaknesses deeply in places. Large cornices loom as potential triggers for deep avalanches.