Avalanche Forecast

Southwest flow will carry the first in a parade of mild wet fronts across the Northwest on Thursday. This will cause increasing winds and increasing moderate to heavy rain or snow by Thursday morning with rising snow levels. Snow levels west of the crest should rise to about 6000 feet in the north and 7000 feet in the south by Thursday afternoon.

The more widespread avalanche problem west of the crest on Thursday should be increasing loose wet snow avalanches involving snow from so far in February. The late January crust should make a good bed surface on many slopes. Small natural or triggered loose wet avalanches should be likely in many areas with some large wet loose avalanches. This problem should be most likely near and below treeline where there is more rain but may work its way into the above treeline by the end of the day due to rising snow levels.

Some new storm slab and wind slab should also build above treeline in the morning hours. The trend of rising temperature will help build upside down higher density snow over lower density snow above the snow level. New storm or wind slab of up to several inches seems possible above the snow level. Any surviving buried surface hoar from late January would act as a weak layer.

Dangerous avalanche conditions are expected on Thursday. Watch for rapidly changing snow conditions if you decide to venture into avalanche terrain.

Mild weather with sunny days or minor rain or snow was seen from about January 26th to about January 31st. This caused more consolidation, stabilizing and the formation of a thick strong stable surface crust in most areas west of the crest. Surface hoar formed on shaded and north slopes in some areas in fair weather during this time.

Slightly wet weather from about February 1 through today produced about 1-4 inches of snow at NWAC sites west of the crest with more at higher elevations.

NWAC pro-observer Jeff Hambelton visited Artist Point at about 5000 feet next to the Mt Baker ski area February 2nd. Winds had redistributed the 10 inches of recent snow depending upon terrain and cross loading. He rated wind and storm slab layers as likely but an ECT did not indicate propagation.

NWAC pro-observer Jeff Ward was at Steven Pass on February 2nd where there was 4-6 inches of recent snow up to about 5800 feet. The main problem there was skier triggered wet loose avalanches on steep slopes of varied aspect.

NWAC pro-observer Dallas Glass was at Paradise today and found 2-4 inches of recent snow producing small triggered loose wet avalanches on steep slopes on the thick late January crust.

The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.