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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2015–Jan 20th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

If travelling into the above treeline elevation band Tuesday, watch for potential wind slab on lee aspects and loose wet avalanches on solar aspects. 

Detailed Forecast

A dry day with partly to mostly sunny skies with rising freezing levels should do little to change the avalanche danger Tuesday. Despite the warming temps, there likely isn't enough snow on southerly aspects near and below treeline for significant wet loose danger.

In the difficult to access above treeline elevation band of the Olympics, it is plausible that there may be some touchy wind slab on lee aspects or enough snow for loose wet avalanches on southerly aspects.  

As a general backcountry travel safety note, tread carefully at lower elevations and on wind scoured aspects where terrain hazards (exposed rocks, trees, streams, etc.) are present. 

Snowpack Discussion

Strong southwest flow carried a wet front across the Olympics Saturday night. This front tapped subtropical moisture such that snow levels rose well above the Hurricane Ridge level Saturday night before a slow cooling trend set in Sunday.  2 inches of water over 48 hours ending 4 am Monday only produced about a 7-8 inch bump in snowdepths at the NWAC Hurricane Ridge station and the Waterhole NRCS Snotel. 

NWAC observer Tyler Reid was at Hurricane on Friday. He painted a somewhat dismal picture with shallow or little snow on most slopes. Katy Reid reported only marginally better conditions on Sunday afternoon with the new snowfall. Many southerly and windward slopes do not have enough snow cover for a significant avalanche threat.  

Check out Sunday's video from Katy R. on our YouTube Channel. 

Below the most recent storm snow, the rest of the snowpack should consist of melt-freeze grains and crusts from warm periods this winter. 

 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.