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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2017–Jan 20th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Continued unsettled weather with a gradual cooling. The snowpack will take a few days to adjust to its new load. In the meantime a cautious approach is recommended.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, light south wind, alpine temperature -6, freezing level 1100mSATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, wind light southeast, alpine temperature -5SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and the chance of isolated flurries, wind light southeast, alpine temperature -7More details can be found on the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports indicate a size 2.5 remotely triggered avalanche 70cm deep and running on a west aspect at 2100m. Additionally several Natural avalanches running to size 3.5 on west to north aspects in the alpine and tree line. One was reported to have stepped down the persistent weakness buried in mid December. There are also several reports of steep cut banks at low elevations (below 1400m) releasing as slab avalanches down to the early season crust. Click here for a MIN report in the North Columbia region of a full burial due to a low elevation avalanche releasing on a smooth bed surface. This was remotely  triggered from a flat trail at the bottom of the slope.

Snowpack Summary

The most recent storm brought variable snow fall amounts to this region ranging from 40-60cm. The storm slab has been sensitive to additional loads. Previous to the new storm, recent cold and clear weather has promoted both faceting of surface snow as well as the growth of surface hoar that had been reported to be up to 7mm in size in sheltered areas below tree line. In deeper snowpack parts of the region, the mid-December facet layer lies up to 120 cm below the surface. In shallower areas, particularly those in the southeast (Allen Creek), North (Sugarbowl) and likely some western areas around Quesnel and Barkerville, the snowpack is likely a lot more suspect, with a thicker, more pronounced facet layer buried only 50-60 cm below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.