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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 20th, 2017–Dec 21st, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Olympics.

The avalanche danger will continue to slowly decrease Thursday. The uncertainty will be wind transported snow near ridges and newly forming wind slabs on a variety of aspects. Watch for any wind stiffened surface snow and avoid large open slopes of consequence in higher terrain.

Detailed Forecast

Cool weather with mostly clear skies or high clouds are expected Thursday with moderate NW winds at higher elevations. 

This weather will continue to cause a decreasing trend in the avalanche danger as recent storm snow slowly stabilizes. At higher elevations, expect wind transport and building areas of wind slab, mainly above treeline and onto unusual aspects from the mostly NNW winds.

While the overall danger is decreasing, continue to travel with caution and watch for any slab like structure or cohesion in the upper snowpack, indicating the possibility of triggered slab avalanches.   

Watch for touchy recently formed cornices and avoid travel on steep unsupported slopes.

Remember that beneath snow received during this storm cycle, early season terrain hazards exist, especially at lower elevations. Expect terrain hazards with poorly covered rocks, vegetation and creeks, particularly on south-facing terrain, at lower elevations, and on exposed ridges where wind events have stripped much of the season's snowcover.

Snowpack Discussion

A strong storm from late Monday through Tuesday afternoon dropped over 3 inches of water equivalent amounting to over 2 feet of new snow in the Hurricane Ridge area by early Wednesday. Strong winds with warmer initial temperatures likely built wind and storm slabs by Tuesday.

Cooling and diminishing winds with clearing through Wednesday is allowing for a slow decrease in danger as storm layers settle, especially near and below treeline. 

The storm snow has fallen on settled old snow or crust layers formed during the long period of high pressure in early December. 

Winds have shifted and strengthened from the north Wednesday, no doubt transporting the abundant new snow and building wind slab layers on a variety of aspects, especially near or above treeline.  

Observations

No recent observations.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.