Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Apr 1 – 2, 2016Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 11 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sun
Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Pay close attention to the amount of cloud cover and winds.  If the sun comes out and/or winds decrease expect avalanche danger to trend towards HIGH.  Early starts and early finishes are crucial.  Lots of Natural slides recently.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3–6
    Cornices are large and drooping. When they fail, they have enough mass to wake up the deep basal layers. These events have been occurring.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3
    All aspects and elevations except pure north aspects above 2400m.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3–6
    The heat being pushed into the snowpack is waking up the deep basal layers triggerring some larger avalanches that are failing at the ground.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Winds are forecast to increase on Saturday with a bit more cloud cover.  This will help to keep the snowpack slightly cooler and hold it together a bit longer.  The freezing level is still forecast to be around 2500m so if the sun comes out of the wind dies down, the snowpack can again rapidly change and head into HIGH.  On friday the temperatures climbed 10deg in two hours so its important to note that when the sun comes out, stability will decrease quickly. 

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet avalanches on all aspects except pure north in the Alpine.  A new slabs likely caused by the hear were also observed on E through W aspects up to sz 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

Widespread crusts can be found on all aspects except for true north above 2400m.  These crusts on south aspects are up to 20cm thick and fully supportive.  In travels on Friday, forecasters did not note any locations where the crust did not support the weight of a skier.  As temperatures warm up during the day, these crusts are breaking down, loose wet avalanches begin to occur and as the heat penetrates deeper into the snowpack, deep slab avalanches become likely.  There is a brief window between the two wherein there is good corn snow skiing but your timing has ton be bang on.

Regions covered