Pay close attention to the amount of cloud cover and winds. If the sun comes out and/or winds decrease expect avalanche danger to trend towards HIGH. Early starts and early finishes are crucial. Lots of Natural slides recently.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
Winds are forecast to increase on Saturday with a bit more cloud cover. This will help to keep the snowpack slightly cooler and hold it together a bit longer. The freezing level is still forecast to be around 2500m so if the sun comes out of the wind dies down, the snowpack can again rapidly change and head into HIGH. On friday the temperatures climbed 10deg in two hours so its important to note that when the sun comes out, stability will decrease quickly.
Avalanche Summary
Numerous loose wet avalanches on all aspects except pure north in the Alpine. A new slabs likely caused by the hear were also observed on E through W aspects up to sz 2.5.
Snowpack Summary
Widespread crusts can be found on all aspects except for true north above 2400m. These crusts on south aspects are up to 20cm thick and fully supportive. In travels on Friday, forecasters did not note any locations where the crust did not support the weight of a skier. As temperatures warm up during the day, these crusts are breaking down, loose wet avalanches begin to occur and as the heat penetrates deeper into the snowpack, deep slab avalanches become likely. There is a brief window between the two wherein there is good corn snow skiing but your timing has ton be bang on.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.