Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 27th, 2014 4:16PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Loose Dry, Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

tim haggarty, Parks Canada

Waterton Lakes.

Good skiing out there but watch for even short periods of solar heating to raise the danger rating.

Summary

Weather Forecast

A series of systems continues to approach from the coast. Winds should increase Friday and diminish a bit Sunday. Temperatures look to warm up a bit for the period with peak heating bring the freezing level as high as 1850m Saturday with good overnight recovery. Precip will be light with some clearing: watch for brief periods of intense heating.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 20 cm of new snow now buries a solar crust from Tuesday. This crust extends everywhere except for steep shaded North slopes. At 2000m the March Rain Crusts can be found down 70 to 100cm and these crusts extend to at least 2300m. The Feb facets are generally buried deeply and are now below these crusts except in thin high elevation areas.

Avalanche Summary

A significant solar cycle occurred Tuesday with moist snow gouging down to the March Crusts at low elevations to size 2. Loose Dry activity has also been seen with at least one sz 2 running 350m. Skiers today found easy sluffing with the new snow over the 0326 crust in steep terrain.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Loose Dry

The new snow fails easily on steep slopes: Manage you group carefully and avoid confined features such as gullies.

Avoid travelling on ledges and cliffs where sluffing may have severe consequences.Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Up to 25cm of new snow over the March 26 interface will quickly form a slab with mild temps and the forecast winds. On solar slopes these slabs will be found over a crust and may be particularly touchy.

Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

70 to 110cm of snow is now settling above the early March Crusts. Variable shears persist in these slabs and they are well worth bearing in mind particularly as heating becomes more of a factor in the days and weeks to come.

Be increasingly cautious on sun exposed slopes.Watch for clues, like sluffing off of cliffs, that the snowpack is warming up.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 30th, 2014 4:00PM