We may be at Moderate danger right now but forecasters are skiing like its at considerable and we encourage you to do the same. The weak snowpack gives us no confidence in bigger or steeper features.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday
Weather Forecast
Temps will fell downright tropical tomorrow with daytime highs around -5! Winds will continue out of the SW in the moderate range at higher elevations.
Avalanche Summary
No new natural avalanche activity was observed on Friday.
Snowpack Summary
Windslabs should be expected in Alpine terrain along ridgelines and in crossloaded gully features. These slabs have become slightly more dense over the past 24hrs due to the sw winds beginning to increase at higher elevations. Ski cutting on Thursday on a steep S aspect was priducing minor cracking but releases. Below the upper snowpack windslabs there is a midpack that consists mainly of facets. The Nov 12th crust has began to facet out and decompose in many areas. As a result of the poor base, any avalanche that is intitiated in the upper snowpack will likely involve the entire snowpack.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.