Avalanche forecast

Lizard-Flathead

Mar 7, 2019Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map

Highlights

Fresh windslabs growing on weak sugary facets may be surprisingly widespread Thursday. I'd be taking a cautious approach if there's more than 10 cm of new snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Thursday's wind slab problem will be a function of how much new snow arrives. Wind slabs could be widespread given the weak sugary (faceted) snowpack they will form on.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–2
    Buried surface hoar layers have been a problem at lower elevations over the past month. Although the likelihood of triggering these layers has decreased, this problem still warrants conservative travel in steep open terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A disturbance, not really a storm, is approaching overnight Wednesday and moving out Thursday.WEDNESDAY NIGHT:  Increasing clouds becoming overcast. Moderate but gusty southwest winds. Temps remaining cool; around -10 C. New snow around 5 cm, maybe as high as 15 cm.THURSDAY: Cloudy, Moderate but gusting strong southwest winds. Alpine temperatures continue in the range of -8 to -12 C. Little new snow with the exception of localized, short-lived, but potentially heavy snow showers delivering up to around 10cm.FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Possible flurries but not much accumulation. Moderate southwesterly winds. Alpine high temps to around -5 C.SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Light westerly winds. Alpine high temperatures to around -5 C. No new snow.

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry avalanches, aka sluffs, are reported running in the weakening faceted snow. Normally this is a "good skiing" avalanche problem of no real concern; however, they're growing in size and approaching size 2 (big enough to injure or bury a skier). A couple of small wind slabs were also reported. Both of these will be old news with incoming new snow and wind: wind slabs are expected to be widespread and possibly larger in the next couple of days.

Snowpack Summary

A mix of hard and soft wind slabs can be found in open alpine terrain, while pockets of soft snow can be found in sheltered and shaded areas.Sun crusts are found on south-facing slopes.There are potentially three layers of surface hoar in the upper snowpack. One is down 30-50 cm, another is down 40-80 cm, and the last one is down 80-120 cm. These layers have been most prominent and reactive between 1600 and 1900 m over the past month. Mid pack is faceting and these layers don't seem much of a concern (at least with cont'd cold dry wx regime).The lower snowpack is maintaining strength in deep HS areas.

Regions covered