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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2019–Jan 4th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Today is a great day to ride/ski in-bounds at a ski resort. The HWY and all of are permit areas are closed. We will be triggering numerous large avalanches with artillery fire in the HWY corridor!AVOID ALL AVALANCHE TERRAIN!

Weather Forecast

We are forecasting another 30cm today accompanied by strong winds with the freezing level hovering near 900m today. Another 20cm plus tonight, winds staying strong and no significant change to the freezing levels. Friday we'll receive another dozen centimeters, then the snow will start to taper off by Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

50cms of new snow overnight formed a touchy storm slab! The Dec 9 and Nov 21 interfaces are now situated in the "lower snowpack", and are still possible to trigger in shallow/rocky areas. The mid to lower snowpack is generally well settled and rounding. Decomposing early seasons crusts are still present at/near the ground.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle started early this morning; so far we have observed avalanches to size 3 running full path! We are forecasting the cycle to intensify throughout the day as heavy snowfall continues and the winds rapidly increase. The highway and all permit areas will be closed as we trigger numerous large avalanches with artillery fire.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.