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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2016–Jan 7th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

In specific areas, where the most recent storm snow is more cohesive, small human-triggered slab avalanches will be possible. Before committing to a slope, think about the consequences of the terrain if even a small avalanche occurred.  Small loose wet avalanches should be less likely Thursday, but will still be possible on direct, steep, solar aspects. 

Detailed Forecast

In general, the most recent storm snow overlying recently buried weak layers is lacking widespread cohesion to be deemed likely to trigger. In specific areas, where the storm snow is more cohesive, small human-triggered slab avalanches will be possible. Before committing to a slope, think about the consequences of the terrain if even a small avalanche occurred. Note density changes in the upper snowpack throughout the day and as you change aspect and elevation.  

Small loose wet avalanches should be less likely Thursday, but will still be possible on direct, steep, solar aspects. 

Snowpack Discussion

Fair weather was seen for almost a week around the New Year. This weather should have caused consolidation and stabilizing of snow from December at Hurricane.

NWAC pro observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane Ridge on New Years Day in warmer weather and found 1-2 inch sun crusts on south slopes and sastrugi and small building wind slab on north slopes. But he did not see any failures in snow pit tests. Some surface hoar was being preserved in some shaded sheltered areas. Cornices had become more isolated.

A skier on Turns All Year also reported settled stable powder on north slopes on New Years Day.

Fair weather continued Sunday and Monday at Hurricane, while around 6 inches of snow accumulated at the NRCS snotel Tuesday through Wednesday morning before a clearing trend ensued later in the day. 

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.