SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND over the next 48 hours with freezing levels rising to 3500m and staying there (ie. poor overnight freeze) until Friday. Keep an eye on the temperatures and plan to be out of avalanche terrain early in the day.
Weather Forecast
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND over the next 48 hours with freezing levels rising to 3500m and staying there (i.e. poor overnight freeze) until Friday. Over the weekend we expect cooler temps and a shift to a North Easterly flow which has the potential to bring up to 10mm of precipitation falling as rain below 2300m.
Snowpack Summary
There is rain crust from the valley bottom to 2,350m and a sun crust into Alpine on solar aspects. We expect a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the next 48 hours as temperatures rise and the crusts deteriorate. This has the potential to produce large, full depth avalanches on all aspects.
Avalanche Summary
Several loose wet size 2 noted on Mt sask at 2100-2500m stopping before the river. One size 2 loose wet off boundary peak. Cornice failure peak across sunwapta station E aspect initiated nothing. Isolated loose wet activity in the Maligne Valley on solar aspects.
Confidence
Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.