Avalanche forecast

Taranaki

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
1 · Low
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
1 · Low
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Highlights

Surface conditions and sliding hazard remain the primary concern. An icy rime surface exists above 1600 metres elevation, mostly on south-facing slopes. A loose wet avalanche problem may develop on sun-affected aspects. The weather remains settled over the next 24 hours. Clear conditions at times with light to moderate westerly winds over the next 24 hours, but showers are possible in the southwest.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5

    Loose wet avalanche activity cannot be ruled out. High-angle sun-affected slopes during the warmest period of the day will be the locations of concern. The surface structure will be reduced by solar radiation. Light rain showers in the southwest may also weaken surface structure. High freezing levels and a warm snowpack will also increase the chance of structural breakdown of the surface snow. Be alert to signs such as increased foot and ski penetration, roller ball activity.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No human or naturally triggered avalanches have been reported or observed over the past 24 hours.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Impenetrable rime formations are currently the primary feature of the snowpack. This surface deposit is dangerous and unforgiving, and mostly in the south and west-facing aspects. The rime formations will be resistant to rain saturation or even solar effect and may take time to break down. The snowpack is wet after recent light rain and will refreeze if freezing levels are lower. Recent rain has lifted the snow line and eroded the snowpack. The current snowline is approximately 1600 metres in elevation, with an estimated threshold slightly higher at around 1700 metres. This threshold indicates the minimum snow cover to cover bed surface irregularities. No anchors and avalanches can run free.

Mountain Weather

Saturday, the 18th of July, will be mostly cloudy with drizzly showers, mainly about the southwestern side. The winds are moderate to strong south-westerly tending westerly in the afternoon. The freezing level is high, at about 3000 metres, lowering to 2500 metres in the afternoon. A ridge of high pressure covers much of the North Island today, while a westerly flow affects the South Island. Tomorrow, a west to southwest flow covers Aotearoa/New Zealand, and a front south of the country moves north onto the far south.

Sliding Danger

Rime crust on southern aspects is slick, hard, and dangerous. These types of conditions demand a high level of skill and competency. The consequences of a fall and slide will be severe. Plenty of hazards, such as exposed rocks and cliff bands, exist. It is essential to carry the appropriate gear, crampons, and an ice axe. Taranaki has a high exposure to weather features from multiple directions. Snowpack and surface conditions reflect this in a unique and volatile way. Rime events, rain events are frequent. The rime ice can be robust and impenetrable; even an experienced climber will find the conditions challenging. Read surface conditions and make decisions early; avoid complacency.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered